Estimating multimodal transit ridership with a varying fare structure

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1、TransportationResearchPartA45(2011)148–160ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectTransportationResearchPartAjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/traEstimatingmultimodaltransitridershipwithavaryingfarestructurea,⇑bcKonstantinaGkritza,MatthewG.Karlaftis,FredL.Mannering

2、aDepartmentofCivil,Construction&EnvironmentalEngineering,404TownEngineeringBuilding,IowaStateUniversity,Ames,IA50011-3232,UnitedStatesbSchoolofCivilEngineering,NationalTechnicalUniversityofAthens,5IroonPolytechniouStr.,ZografouCampus,Athens15773,GreececCharlesPankowPr

3、ofessorofCivilEngineering,SchoolofCivilEngineering,550StadiumMallDrive,PurdueUniversity,WestLafayette,IN47907-2051,UnitedStatesarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Thispaperstudiespublictransportdemandbyestimatingasystemofequationsformul-Received29May2010timodaltransitsy

4、stemswheredifferentmodesmayactcompetitivelyorcooperatively.Receivedinrevisedform1December2010UsingdatafromAthens,Greece,weexplicitlycorrectforhigher-orderserialcorrelationAccepted10December2010intheerrortermsandinvestigatetwo,largelyoverlooked,questionsinthetransitlit

5、era-ture;first,whetheravaryingfarestructureinamultimodaltransitsystemaffectsdemandand,second,whatthedeterminantsofticketversustravelcardsalesmaybe.Modelestima-Keywords:tionresultssuggestthattheeffectoffaretypeonridershiplevelsinamultimodalsystemTransitdemandvariesbymod

6、eandbyrelativetickettotravelcardprices.Further,regardlessofcompeti-MultimodaltransitsystemsFarestructuretionorcooperationbetweenmodes,fareincreaseswillhavelimitedeffectsonridership,Time-seriesbutthemagnitudeoftheseeffectsdoesdependontherelativetickettotravelcardprices

7、.High-orderserialcorrelationFinally,incorrectlyassumingserialindependencefortheerrortermsduringmodelestima-Greecetioncouldyieldupwardordownwardbiasedparametersandhenceresultinincorrectinferencesandpolicyrecommendations.Ó2010ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.1.Introduction

8、Forecastingthedemandforpublictransportaswellasdeterminingtheexogenousfactorsthatinfluencetheevolutionofthisdemandmaybeoneofth