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1、AssessingHousingAffordabilityinChina:ACaseStudyofShanghai1995-2005123JieChen,QianjinHaoandBengtTurner1:AssistantProfessor,ManagementSchool,FudanUniversity,China,Email:jiech@fudan.edu.cn;InstituteforHousingandUrbanResearch,UppsalaUniversity,Sweden.2:PhDstudent,EconomicSchoo
2、l,FudanUniversity,China;Email:haoqianjin@fudan.edu.cn3.ProfessorandChair,InstituteforHousingandUrbanResearch,UppsalaUniversity,Sweden;Email:Bengt.Turner@ibf.uu.seAbstract:Thispaperutilizessofarthemostcompletestatisticaldatatoassessthehistoricaltrendofhousingaffordabilityin
3、Shanghai(1995-2005).Weproposeadynamicprice-to-incomeratioanalysisframeworkthathighlightsthecrucialrolesofeconomicgrowthaswellashousingfinanceinstrumentstohousehold’shomepurchaseaffordability.Thenewlydevelopedideologyofhousingaffordabilitymeasurement---theresidualincomeappr
4、oachisalsoemployedinthispaper.Basedonthisapproach,wecomputetheoccurrenceprobabilityofhousing-inducedpoverty,findthetargetlevelofmaximumaffordablehousingprices,andsuggestthemagnitudeofhousingassistancethatshouldbeprovidedtolow-incomehouseholdsinShanghai.Nomatterwhichapproac
5、hisused,strongstatisticalevidencesshowthatthereisasustainedlargegapbetweenhousingpricesandpopulace'sincomesinShanghai.Lessthan20%Shanghairesidentshavepurchaseaffordabilityforastandardizednewhome.Keywords:housingaffordability,residualincomeapproach,dynamicprice-to-incomerat
6、io,ChinahousingreformAcknowledgement:ThisworkisaproductofSIDA(SwedishInternationalDevelopmentAgency)Project“HousingAffordabilityinChina”.JieChenalsoappreciatesthefundsfromChinaNationalScienceFunds(NSF70601007).11.IntroductionProvidingaffordablehousingstoallisalwaysatremend
7、oustaskfacedbydevelopingcountries.ThisisespeciallytrueinChina,notonlybecauseshehasthelargestpopulationintheworldbutalsoherurbanhousingsectorhasjustevolvedfromagovernment-ownedwelfaresystemtoafree-wheeling,market-drivenoneinroughlyadecadeorso(Zhang,2000;Rosen&Ross,2000;Zhao
8、&Bourassa,2003).Butthesoarofhousingpricessince2001inmajorChinesecitieshaveledswellingdoub