2014-05-14 PRTP.PA (Barclays) European Luxury Goods_ Puma Q1 14 in line - guidance impacted by FX

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1、EquityResearch14May2014EuropeanLuxuryGoodsPumaQ114inline–guidanceEuropeanLuxuryGoodsNEUTRALimpactedbyFXUnchangedPuma’sQ1resultswereinlinewithexpectationsalthoughtheguidancewasEuropeanLuxuryGoodsJulianEasthopenudgeddownduetotheFXimpact.ThegroupisnowstatingthatthemarginsFX+44(0)20313466

2、40adjustedwillbearound4.5%in2014against5%previouslyandwehaveadjustedjulian.easthope@barclays.comforthiswithgearingontheinterestchargecuttingEPSby18%and1%forKering.Barclays,LondonThegroupispreparingfortherebrandingunderthe‘ForeverFaster’taglinethatwillbelaunchedinAugust.Despitethebenef

3、itoftheWorldCupinQ2,itstillHelenNorris,CFAexpectsabetterH2performancethanH1duetothisrelaunchasdemonstratedby+44(0)2077730671helen.norris@barclays.comthewholesaleorderingpatterns.However,itisnotexpectingtoseeamaterialBarclays,LondonbenefitfromtherestructuringuntiltheSpringSummercollect

4、ionin2015thathasbeenspecificallydesignedunderthenewbanner.ThishasjustlaunchedandtheLauraLevygroupishappywiththeretailersresponse.WevaluePumabasedonnormalized+44(0)2077732932marginsat€150pershareandretaintheUWrating.laura.levy@barclays.comBarclays,London2014guidance18%belowourestimates

5、primarilyduetoFX:ThegrouporiginallystatedguidanceonaFXneutralbasisandhasnowupdatedforFX,whichresultsina50bpdeclineinEBITandnetincomemarginsfortheyear–whichproducesadowngradeofc13%comparedwiththepreviousguidance.Thegroupalsohada€3mimpactinQ1ontheinterestchargefromhedgesetcthatisafurthe

6、r5%.ThegroupstatedthatH2willbestrongerthanH1.ThefocusinH1istheWorldCupbeforetheForeverFasterbrandlaunchinH2forbacktoschool.Q114results:Withrevenuepre-announcedbyKeringacoupleofweeksago,thefocusoftheresultswasonprofitability.OverallthegroupshowedEBITof€59m(Barclays€58m),PBT€55m(Barclay

7、s€58m),netincome€36m(Barclays€38m)andEPS€2.4(Barclays€2.6m)–allbroadlyinlinewithourforecastsexcludingtheinterestexceptional.Pricetargetbasedon‘normalised’8%EBITmarginand15xPE:Assumingthe4.5%marginisdepressed–webasePuma’spricetargetonamorenormal8%marginforthegroupthatwouldleaveearnings

8、atc€1