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1、EquityResearchRetail
2、U.S.Restaurants18July2013ChipotleMexicanGrill,Inc.2Q13EPSIn-Line…CompUpsideStockRatingEQUALWEIGHTUnchangedOvershadowsDeferralofPriceto‘14IndustryViewNEUTRALUnchangedPriceTargetUSD389.00Chipotlereportedanin-line2Q13EPS,butthestorylinewasallaboutcompandpri
3、ce.raised4%fromUSD375.00Whiletheindustryexperiencedaslowingcompthrough2Q13,Chipotlenotedstability,whichwasimpressive,exceedingexpectationsandasexpecteddrivenentirelybyPrice(18-Jul-2013)USD376.75traffic.Asforprice,andagainasexpected,thereisnonear-termneedforincrease,withPoten
4、tialUpside/Downside+3%foodinflationeasingandthebroadermacrostillfragile.WeexpectthecompupsidetoTickersCMGovershadowthedeferralofpricingto’14,supportingstrengthinthesharestomorrow.WecontinuetoviewChipotleasthebestgrowthstoryinrestaurants,andwiththenextMarketCap(USDmn)11615leg
5、sofgrowthalreadyidentified,10%+annualunitgrowthissustainablelong-term.SharesOutstanding(mn)30.91Withthatsaid,thecurrent~20%2013EPSgrowthisnotlikelytosupportmultipleFreeFloat(%)98.2252WkAvgDailyVolume(mn)0.7expansion…~33.5xforwardvsthe24–48xthree-yearrangeand34.5xaverage.Divi
6、dendYield(%)N/AOutlook:Formal‘13guidancewasliftedforcomp,whilereiteratedforunitgrowth…ReturnonEquityTTM(%)23.75compisexpectedupLSD-MSD,upfromthepriorFlattoLSD,whileunitgrowthCurrentBVPS(USD)41.64Source:FactSetFundamentalsremainsintactforthehighendoftheoriginal165-180,+12%y-y
7、range.Thefocusforinvestorswaspricing,withmanagementnownotingno“currentplanstoraise”forthePricePerformanceExchange-NYSErestof’13,updatedfrompriorplansfor“latesummertoearlyfallatearliest”,drivenby52WeekrangeUSD404.59-233.82longer-termstabletodeflationaryfoodcosts.Foodinflation
8、hasmoderated,withexpectationfor~33%in2H13.Otherwise,newcompdriversareinplace,ledbymarketing,vegetariansafritas,andcatering(detailsbelow).WhileEPSgrowthwasnotoffered,wecontinuetobelieve20%+reasonable,and2Hloaded,withupsidetocompoffsetbythelackofpriceincrease.Oncashusage,expec
9、tcontinuedopportunitisticbuyback.2Q13Review:EPSof$2.82,+10%y-y,in-linewithe
