demandplanning(供应链高级计划排程课件)

《demandplanning(供应链高级计划排程课件)》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。

1、Demandplanning2016-4MichaelWagnerIntroductionWhyisdemandplanningnecessary?LargebenefitswhichareachievedbySupplyChainManagementareaccreditedtothereductionofinventories,esp.tothedecrementofsafetystocksWhatisthepurposeofdemandplanning?ThepurposeofDemandPlanningistoimprovedecisionsaffectin

2、gdemandaccuracyandthecalculationofbufferorsafetystockstoreachapredefinedservicelevel.Whatismainobstacles?processuncertainty(e.g.unreliableproductionprocesses,fluctuatinglead-timesetc.)demanduncertainty(differenceinplannedorestimateddemandandactualsales).CONTENTSFirstpartSecondpartThird

3、partLastpartAdemandplanningframeworkStatisticalforecastingtechniquesIncorporationofjudgmentalfactorsAdditionalfeaturesAdemandplanningframeworkAdemandplanningframeworkproductdimension:product→productgroup→productfamily→productline;geographicdimension:customer→salesregion→DCregion/locati

4、on;timedimension:differentbucketsize(days→weeks→years)andhorizon.CONTENTSFirstpartSecondpartThirdpartLastpartAdemandplanningframeworkStatisticalforecastingtechniquesIncorporationofjudgmentalfactorsAdditionalfeaturesStatisticalforecastingtechniquestime-series-analysiscausalmodelsTwobasi

5、capproachesStatisticalforecastingtechniquesStatisticalforecastingtechniquestime-series-analysiscausalmodelsTwobasicapproachesStatisticalforecastingtechniques1MovingAverageandSmoothingMethods2RegressionAnalysis3ARIMA/Box-Jenkins-methodThreemostfrequentlyusedforecastingmethodsStatistical

6、forecastingtechniques1MovingAverageTheparameterestimatefortheleveliscalculatedbyaveragingthepastndemandobservations.SmoothingMethodsTheneedtocutthetime-seriesisavoidedbytheexponentialsmoothingmethod,becauseitassignsdifferentweightstoallobserveddemanddataandincorporatesthemintotheforeca

7、stStatisticalforecastingtechniques2RegressionAnalysisWheresignificantinfluenceofsomeknownfactorsispresent,itseemstobestraightforwardtousecausalmodelsintheforecastingprocess.Regressionanalysisisthestandardmethodforestimationofparametervaluesincausalmodels.Statisticalforecastingtechniq