Understanding property cycles in residential market

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1、Thecurrentissueandfulltextarchiveofthisjournalisavailableatwww.emeraldinsight.com/0263-7472.htmUnderstandingUnderstandingpropertycyclesinpropertycyclesaresidentialmarketRichardReedDeakinUniversity,Burwood,Australia,and33HaoWuUniversityofMelbourne,Melbourne,Austr

2、aliaReceivedJuly2009AcceptedOctober2009AbstractPurposeThispaperaimstoreviewpropertycycletheoryandtherelevanceofthelargerbodyofknowledgeaboutcycleswithreferencetothehousingmarket.Italsoaimstohighlightthelackofresearchintopropertycyclesintheresidentialsectoronasub

3、urborsmallerregionbasis,aswellasthepotentialforincreasedknowledgeaboutcyclestoassisttoavoidhousingstress.Design/methodology/approachThepaperconductsaliteraturereviewofpreviouscycleresearchandencouragestheuseofcycletheory.Itdiscussestheestablishedbodyofknowledgea

4、boutbusinesscyclesandtheofficemarketsector,aswellasinvestigatinglevelsofhousingaffordabilityandhowdetailedknowledgeaboutpropertycyclescanassisttodecreasehousingaffordabilityinresidentialareas,whichwilleventuallyexperienceadownturn.FindingsItisarguedthatanincrease

5、dlevelofcertaintyaboutcyclebehaviourinparticularsuburbswillgivehouseholdsahigherlevelofconfidencewhenconsideringwhetherandwhentoenterthemarket.Propertycycleresearchhasthepotentialtoassistlow-incomehomeownerstobetterunderstandthecharacteristicsofcyclesandassociate

6、drisksineachresidential.Researchlimitations/implicationsThisisaconceptualpaperandhasconductedareviewofcycleresearchandhousingaffordabilityincertaincountries.Someareasorcountriesmaybeaffectedtovaryingdegreesbypropertycyclesandlevelsofhousingaffordability.Practica

7、limplicationsInextendedperiodsofhighvolatilityitisarguedthatabetterunderstandingofhousingcycleswillallowmorehomeownerstoavoidnegativeequityandthestressassociatedwithrepossessions.Propertycyclesareunavoidablealthoughthereistypicallyrelativelylittleinformationavai

8、lableintheopenmarketaboutthetimingandamplitudeofcyclesinindividualareas.Originality/valueThispaperisuniqueasithighlightsthepotentialforpropertycyclestobeusedtoavoidho