Charles Plosser Understanding Real Business Cycles.pdf

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1、AmericanEconomicAssociationUnderstandingRealBusinessCyclesAuthor(s):CharlesI.PlosserReviewedwork(s):Source:TheJournalofEconomicPerspectives,Vol.3,No.3(Summer,1989),pp.51-77Publishedby:AmericanEconomicAssociationStableURL:http://www.jstor.org/stable/1942760.Accessed:08/01/201202:04YouruseoftheJSTOR

2、archiveindicatesyouracceptanceoftheTerms&ConditionsofUse,availableat.http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jspJSTORisanot-for-profitservicethathelpsscholars,researchers,andstudentsdiscover,use,andbuilduponawiderangeofcontentinatrusteddigitalarchive.Weuseinformationtechnologyandtoolst

3、oincreaseproductivityandfacilitatenewformsofscholarship.FormoreinformationaboutJSTOR,pleasecontactsupport@jstor.org.AmericanEconomicAssociationiscollaboratingwithJSTORtodigitize,preserveandextendaccesstoTheJournalofEconomicPerspectives.http://www.jstor.orgJournalofEconomicPerspectives-Volume3,Numb

4、er3-Summer1989-Pages51-77UnderstandingRealBusinessCyclesCharlesI.Plosserhe1960swereatimeofgreatoptimismformacroeconomists.Manyeconomistsviewedthebusinesscycleasdead.TheKeynesianmodelwasthereigningparadigmanditprovidedallthenecessaryinstructionsformanipulatingtheleversofmonetaryandfiscalpolicytocon

5、trolaggregatedemand.Inflationoccurredifaggregatedemandwasstimulated"excessively"andunemploymentaroseifdemandwas"insufficient."Theonlydilemmafacedbypolicymakerswasdeterminingthemostdesirablelocationalongthisinflation-unemploymenttradeofforPhillipscurve.Theremainingintellectualchallengewastoestablis

6、hcoherentmicroeconomicfounda-tionsfortheaggregatebehavioralrelationspositedbytheKeynesianframework,butthiswasbroadlyregardedasadetailthatshouldnotdeterpolicymakersintheireffortsto"stabilize"theeconomy.Thereturnofthebusinesscycleinthe1970safteralmostadecadeofeconomicexpansion,andtheaccompanyinghigh

7、ratesofinflation,cameasarudeawakeningformanyeconomists.ItbecameincreasinglyapparentthatthebasicKeynesianframeworkwasnottheappropriatevehicleforunderstandingwhathappensduringabusinesscyclenordiditseemcapableofprov