LATIN LPG MARKET

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1、InternationalEnergyPricesandInternationalEnergyPricesandLatinAmericaLPGMarketsLatinAmericaLPGMarketsPresentedtoXXICongresoAIGLP–Colona,UruguayMay25,2006Presentedby:S.CraigWhitleyPurvin&Gertz,Inc.LPGToday’sPresentation¾Internationaloilandgassupply/demandfundamentalsr

2、esponsibleforhighcrudeoil,naturalgasandLPGmarketprices¾SummaryoverviewofPurvin&Gertz’newmarketpublication,theLatinAmericaLPGMarketOutlook2CurrentStateofWorldOil,GasandNGLMarkets¾Higher-than-expectedgrowthinpetroleumdemand¾Crudeproductionandrefiningratesatrecordhighs

3、¾ProductionhikesinMiddleEasthasnotloweredprices¾HurricanesKatrinaandRitahadadevastatingimpactonpetroleumandNGLmarkets.¾DecliningoilandgasreservesintheU.S.andNorthSea¾MontBelvieuLPGpricesareunusuallyhighrelativetootherforeignmarkets¾Supply-drivenLPGmarket–withnewsupp

4、liesfrommanynewsources.3SkyrocketingoilandgaspricesmakeheadlinesdailySpotWTICrudeOilPricing,US$perBarrel80$70.1570$63.3660$56.5950$41.4940$31.06$30.3730$25.93$26.16$19.312010019992000200120022003200420051Q-06Current4Whyarecrudeoilpricessohigh?¾StrongGlobalPetroleumD

5、emandGrowthSince2003¾HighCrudeOilProductionCapacityUtilizationWorldwide¾SlowdowninExpansionofNon-OPECSupplies¾ImpactofAtlanticHurricanesonU.S.GulfofMexicoCrudeOil(andGas)Productionin2005¾SeveralGeopoliticalEvents°IranNuclearConflict°IraqiInsurgency°NigerianUnrest°Ve

6、nezuelaandBoliviaIssues°ConcernsAboutMiddleEastSupply5A“bigpicture”issueservesasthebackdropfortheseimportantglobalenergymarketdrivers¾Duringthepast5yearsworldwideoilconsumptionhasexceedednewoildiscoveriesbyawidemargin:°Consumed27billionbarrelsperyear°Discovered3bill

7、ionbarrelsperyear6Whohasit?Whowantsit?REPORTEDDEMANDRESERVES20042020BBOE%MBD%MBD%SaudiArabia25923%22%22%62%OtherMidEast43739%45%66%Canada(5to179)928%23%33%LatinAmerica868%56%66%Africa898%33%44%Russia605%44%54%UnitedStates222%2125%2524%China212%68%1211%Europe172%1619

8、%1616%72%FarEast182%1620%2120%Mexico161%22%22%Eurasia101%11%11%Australia40%11%11%Total1,132100%82100%105100%7ChinaPetroleumSupplyandDemand