Property delisting, housing cycle and pricing bias

Property delisting, housing cycle and pricing bias

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时间:2019-07-10

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1、JournalofHousingEconomics20(2011)152–157ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectJournalofHousingEconomicsjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/jhecPropertydelisting,housingcycleandpricingbiasab,⇑cPingCheng,ZhenguoLin,YingchunLiuaDepartmentofFinance,CollegeofBusiness,FloridaAtlanticUniversity,

2、777GladesRoad,BocaRaton,FL33431,USAbDepartmentofFinanceandEconomics,MississippiStateUniversity,MS39762,USAcDepartmentofFinance,InsuranceandRealEstate,LavalUniversity,Quebec,CanadaG1V0A6articleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Thispaperprovidesaformalanalysisonawell-knownissueofthehousingmarket–obse

3、r-Received27July2010vabletransactionpricesareabiasedindicationofthetruemarketconditionifsignificantAvailableonline19February2011numbersoflistedpropertiesaredelistedwithoutsale.Weprovideaclosed-formformulatoidentifyandcorrectsuchpricingbias.ThemodelcanhelpmarketparticipantsandpolicyJELclassific

4、ations:makerstoformlessbiasedviewsofthetruestateofthehousingmarket,especiallyduringG11thedowncycles.G12Ó2011ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved.R31Keywords:PropertydelistingHousingcycleHousepricesAwide-spreadphenomenoninadowncycleoftherealanddelistingisrare,thebiasisnegligible.Butincoldmar-estatem

5、arket(suchastherecentUShousingmarket)isket,likeintherecentyears,thebiascanbesevereinthe1thathouseslistedforsaleoftendonotgetsoldafterex-faceoframpantpropertydelisting.Animportantimplica-tendedperiodoftime-on-market.Eventually,manyoftionofsuchbiasisthatitmaycausebiasedhousingpricethemarepulle

6、doffthemarketwithoutacceptableoffers.indices.Sincemajorhousingmarketindices,suchastheThisisknownaspropertydelisting.SincethedelistedwidelywatchedS&P/Case-ShillerHomePriceIndices,arehousesarepartofthetruesupply(orshadowsupply)intypicallybasedononlytransactionprices,theyarelikelythemarket,give

7、ndemand,thetrueequilibriumprice(ortosufferfromsuchabias.Simplyput,transaction-basedtheshadowprice)maybesignificantlylowerthantheob-housingindicestendtooverstatethetrueequilibriumpriceservedmarketpricesbasedonthesoldhouses.Intuitively,andunderstateth

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