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1、THECAUSESOFWELFARESTATEEXPANSIONDeindustrializationorGlobalization?ByTORBENIVERSENandTHOMASR.CUSACK*INTRODUCTIONTiscommonplacetoarguethattheincreasingopennessofnationalIeconomieshasmeantgrowingeconomicinsecurity.Thisinsecurityoncesupposedlyfueleddemandsf
2、orlargerwelfarespendingasaformofinsurance.1Therisingtideofglobalization,however,isnowwidelyseenasahinderancetoagovernment’sabilitytomeetthesedemandsandevenasacauseofgovernmentcutbacks.2Analternativeviewcom-binesthis“secondimagereversed”withaconcernforthe
3、politicalpoweroflaborandtheleft.3Thisrevisionistperspectivesuggeststhatthechallengespromotedbyglobalizationwhenmetbystrongleft-laborpowerwithinthedomesticpoliticalsystemcombinetoproduceacom-pensationstrategythatentailsalargeandvibrantwelfarestate.Thispap
4、erchallengesboththeseviews.Ourargument,inshort,isthatmostoftherisksbeinggeneratedinmodernindustrializedsocietiesaretheproductoftechnologicallyinducedstructuraltransformationsinsidena-tionallabormarkets.Increasingproductivity,changingconsumptionpat-terns,
5、andsaturateddemandforproductsfromthetraditionalsectorsoftheeconomyarethemainforcesofchange.Itisthesestructuralsourcesofriskthatfueldemandsforstatecompensationandrisksharing.*Anearlierversionofthispaperwaspresentedatthe94thAmericanPoliticalScienceAssociat
6、ionMeetinginBoston,September3–6,1998.FormanyhelpfulcommentsandsuggestionsonthisandarelatedpaperwewishtothankKeithBanting,JohnFreeman,GeoffreyGarrett,PeterHall,BobHancké,PeterLange,PaulPierson,JonasPontusson,DaniRodrik,MichaelShalev,DavidSoskice,JohnSteph
7、ens,andthreeanonymousreaders.WealsothankGeoffreyGarrettforprovidinguswithsomeofthedatausedinouranalyses.BothauthorsexpresstheirappreciationtotheScienceCenterBerlinandtheCenterforEuropeanStudiesatHarvardUniversityfortheirsupport.1SeeDavidCameron,“TheExpan
8、sionofthePublicEconomy:AComparativeAnalysis,”Ameri-canPoliticalScienceReview72,no.4(1978);andPeterKatzenstein,SmallStatesinWorldMarkets(Ithaca,N.Y.:CornellUniversityPress,1985).2DaniRodrik,“WhyDoMoreOpenEconomiesHaveLarger
