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1、HesitationsAshisstudiescometoaclosethehisto-rianfacesthechallenge:Ofwhatusehaveyourstudiesbeen?Haveyoufoundinyourworkonlytheamusementofre-countingtheriseandfallofnationsandideas,andretelling"sadstoriesofthedeathofkings"?Haveyoulearnedmoreabouthumannaturethanthemaninth
2、estreetcanlearnwithoutsomuchasopen-ingabook?Haveyouderivedfromhis-toryanyilluminationofourpresentcon-dition,anyguidanceforourjudgmentsandpolicies,anyguardagainstthere-buffsofsurpriseorthevicissitudesofchange?Haveyoufoundsuchregulari-tiesinthesequenceofpasteventsthatyo
3、ucanpredictthefutureactionsofmankindorthefateofstates?Isitpossi-blethat,afterall,"historyhasnosense,"thatitteachesusnothing,andthattheimmensepastwasonlythewearyrehear-salofthemistakesthatthefutureisdes-tinedtomakeonalargerstageandscale?Attimeswefeelso,andamultitudeofd
4、oubtsassailourenterprise.Tobeginwith,dowereallyknowwhatthepastwas,whatactuallyhappened,orishisto-ry"afable"notquite"agreedupon"?Ourknowledgeofanypasteventisalwaysincomplete,probablyinaccurate,bec-loudedbyambivalentevidenceandbi-asedhistorians,andperhapsdistortedbyouro
5、wnpatrioticorreligiouspartisan-ship."Mosthistoryisguessing,andtherestisprejudice."Eventhehistorianwhothinkstoriseabovepartialityforhiscountry,race,creed,orclassbetrayshissecretpredilectioninhischoiceofmate-rials,andinthenuancesofhisadjectives."Thehistorianalwaysoversi
6、mplifies,andhastilyselectsamanageableminorityoffactsandfacesoutofacrowdofsoulsandeventswhosemultitudinouscom-plexityhecanneverquiteembraceorcomprehend."Again,ourconclusionsfromthepasttothefuturearemademorehazardousthaneverbytheaccelerationofchange.In1909CharlesPeguyth
7、oughtthat"theworldchangedlesssinceJesusChristthaninthelastthirtyyears";andperhapssomeyoungdoctorofphilosophyinphysicswouldnowaddthathissciencehaschangedmoresince1909thaninallrecordedtimebefore.Everyyear-sometimes,inwar,everymonth-somenewinvention,method,orsituationcom
8、pelsafreshadjustmentofbehaviorandideas.-Furthermore,anelementof'Chance,perhapsoffreedom,seemstoenterintotheconductofmetalsan
