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1、SocialScience410November,2000SustainingChina’sRapidEconomicGrowth:TransitionfromaCommandEconomytoaMarketEconomyandfromExtensiveGrowthtoIntensiveGrowthBenHogan1China’sunprecedentedeconomicgrowth,andsubsequentemergenceasamajorworldpresenceoverthepasttwoandahalfdecadeshasattractedworldwideattention.Bet
2、ween1978and1995,realGDPpercapitagrewatthesearingrateofeight1percentayear,lifting200millionChineseoutofabsolutepoverty.Twosweepinghistoricalchangeovers;namely,fromaruralagriculturalsocietytoanurbanindustrialoneandfromacommandeconomytoamarketbasedone,coupledwitheconomicreformsbegunin1978,areresponsibl
3、eforthisastonishinggrowthrate.Inordertocontinuethedesiredrapidandsustainedgrowth,however,Chinamustcompletetwofundamentaltransitions:fromatraditionalplannedeconomytoasocialistmarketeconomy;andfromextensivegrowth,basedonincreasesininputs,tointensivegrowth,2drivenbyimprovementsinefficiency.Thepathstoco
4、mpletingthesetransitionswillbepresentedinthefollowingmanner:first,ashorthistoryfollowingChina’economyfrom1978to1995;second,anin-depthanalysisofChina’seconomicpositionasof1996,substantiatedwithsomeevidencefrom1997-2000,(accurateandwellorganizeddataisprimarilyavailableonlyupto1997);followedlastlybyabr
5、iefassessmentofthepossiblepathsChina’seconomymaytake.HowdidChina’sunprecedentedeconomicgrowthcomeabout?ThemostnoteworthyaspectofChina’sGDPgrowthsince1978hasbeenitsrelianceonfactorsotherthancapitalaccumulation.37percentofgrowthcanbeattributedtogrowthincapitalinputs,17percenttoimprovementsinthequantit
6、yandqualityofthelaborforce,and3-5percenttoundeterminedforces,leavingclosetohalfofChina’sGDPgrowthtofactorsotherthancapitalinputs.China’simpressiveeconomicgrowthcanbeattributedtothefollowingfactors:relativestability,astrongtrackrecordof1WayneM.Morrison,CongressionalResearchService:China’sEconomicCond
7、itions,[2000]p.1.2WorldBankReport:China2020.TheWorldBank:WashingtonD.C.;c.1997,p.18.2pragmaticreforms,aremarkablyhighsavingsrate,andagrowingadministrativecapacit
