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1、Probability:APhilosophicalIntroduction‘Afascinatingphilosophicaltourofprobabilitytheorybyadistinguished,insightful,andlucidguide.’AlanHájek,AustralianNationalUniversityProbability:APhilosophicalIntroductionintroducesandexplainstheprincipalconceptsandapplicationsofprobability
2、.Itisintendedforphilosophersandotherswhowanttounderstandprobabilityasweallapplyitinourworkingandeverydaylives.Thebookisnotacourseinmathematicalprobability,ofwhichitusesonlythesimplestresults,andavoidsallneedlesstechnicality.Theroleofprobabilityinmoderntheoriesofknowledge,inf
3、erence,induction,causation,lawsofnature,actionanddecision-makingmakesanunderstandingofitespeciallyimportanttophilosophersandstudentsofphilosophy,towhomthisbookwillbeinvaluablebothasatextbookandaworkofreference.InthisbookD.H.Mellordiscussesthethreebasickindsofprobability–phys
4、ical,epistemic,andsubjective–andintroducesandassessesthemaintheoriesandinterpretationsofthem.Thetopicsandconceptscoveredinclude•chance•frequency•possibility•propensity•credence•confirmation•BayesianismProbability:APhilosophicalIntroductionisessentialreadingforallphilosophyst
5、udentsandotherswhoencounterorneedtoapplyideasofprobability.D.H.MellorisEmeritusProfessorofPhilosophyattheUniversityofCambridge.HisbooksincludeTheFactsofCausationandRealTimeII,bothpublishedbyRoutledge.Probability:APhilosophicalIntroductionD.H.MellorFirstpublished2005byRoutled
6、ge2ParkSquare,MiltonPark,Abingdon,OxonOX144RNSimultaneouslypublishedintheUSAandCanadabyRoutledge270MadisonAve,NewYork,NY10016RoutledgeisanimprintoftheTaylor&FrancisGroupThiseditionpublishedintheTaylorandFrancise-Library,2005.“TopurchaseyourowncopyofthisoranyofTaylor&Franciso
7、rRoutledge’scollectionofthousandsofeBookspleasegotowww.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.”©2005D.H.MellorAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereprintedorreproducedorutilisedinanyformorbyanyelectronic,mechanical,orothermeans,nowknownorhereafterinvented,includingphotocopyingandrecordin
8、g,orinanyinformationstorageorretrievalsystem,withoutpermissioninwritingfrom