黄金行业从全球货币体系说起：黄金王者归来

《黄金行业从全球货币体系说起：黄金王者归来》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Gold:TheKingisReturning06/27/2019Overweight(Maintained)NonferrousMetalsHowtochasethebigtrendingingoldmarket?AnalystZhangYidongzhangyd@xyzq.com.cnSFC:BIS749SAC:S0190510110012Goldpricehasbeenfloatingsince1971.Currencyattributesdominatedthetwo-wheeledsuperbullmarket.Theinstabilityoft

2、heUSdollarcreditisthedecisivefactorinthegoldbull,butthatisasuperficialphenomenon.Astheglobalcurrencyhegemon,theUSdollarisanexternalmanifestationofUSnationalstrength.Therefore,thepriceofgoldisareverseindicatorofthestrengthoftheUSeconomyandalsoareverseindicatoroftherelativestrengtho

3、ftheUSandnon-USeconomies.ContactHanYijiahanyij@xyzq.com.cnSAC:S0190517080003CouldUSdollarcreditbechallenged?Lookingbackattheconversionoftheglobalcurrencyhegemonyfromthepoundtothedollar,aftertwoworldwarsandtheGreatRecessionofthe1930s,thepoundhasbeenunabletoassumethecurrencyhegemony

4、.In1944,theUSdollarofficiallyreplacedthepoundintoaglobalcurrencythroughtheBrettonWoodssystem.Sincethen,theUnitedStateshasbeencommittedtothecontinuouspromotionoftheUSdollarthroughtheMarshallPlanandtheDodgeprogram,andencouragessettlementinUSdollars,attheexpenseofsellingthepound.Thes

5、ubprime-mortgagecrisisexposedthefragilityoftheUSfinancialsystemanddemonstratedthepowerofemergingmarkets.Sincethensomenewphenomenaemerged:(1)Worldcentralbankincreaseditspurchaseofgoldfromnetsellingtonetbuying.(2)TheUSdollarratiofellintheglobalforeignexchangereserves.(3)TheRMBisonth

6、einternationalstage.Webelievethattheoutbreakofthesubprimemortgagecrisishasacceleratedthetransitionofthedollar-dominatedinternationalsystemtoadiversifiedinternationalsystem.DuringTrump'sunilateralismandtradeprotectionism,theglobalcentralbank'sofficialgoldreservesincreasedby651.5ton

7、sin2018,reachinganewhighofnearly50years.Themotivationbehindthismaybetheriseinuncertaintyaboutglobalpoliticalandtraderisksandconcernsaboutthestabilityoftheglobalmonetarysystem.Countriesarelookingtoavoidasingledollar-dependentapproachtocompensateforandreducetherisksposedbythissystem

8、.Strongfinancialadvantagesinthepo