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1、PollutionforPromotionRuixueJiaUCSDMarch3,2014AbstractThispaperprovidesevidenceontheimpactofpoliticalincentivesontheenviron-mentusingthecaseofChina'spollution.Guidedbyasimplecareerconcernsmodel,Iexamineempiricallyhowpromotionincentivesofprovincialgovernorsa ectpollu-tion.To ndexogenouspromotionin
2、centives,Iexplorewithin-governorvariationinconnectionswithkeyocialsduetoreshuingatthecenteranddocumentthefactthatconnectionsarecomplementarytoeconomicperformanceforgovernors'promo-tion.Evidencefrombothocialinformationandsatellitedatacon rmsthemodelpredictionthatconnectionsincreasepollution.Aux
3、iliarypredictionsofthemodelarealsocon rmedbythedata.Email:rxjia@ucsd.edu.IamindebtedtoTorstenPerssonandDavidStr•ombergfortheirguidance.IthankDaronAcemoglu,PhilippeAghion,KonradBurchardi,JinfengGe,PerKrusell,MasaKudamatsu,XiaohuanLan,ErikLindquist,HuihuaNie,PeterNilsson,YuQin,JamesRobinson,Gerard
4、Roland,AshishShenoy,JakobSvensson,EkaterinaZhuravskayaandseminarparticipantsattheNBERConferenceonEco-nomicsofEnvironmentalProtectioninChina,CIFAR,Bocconi,LSE,NorthwesternKellogg,USCMarshall,Berkeley,StanfordGSB,UCSDIRPS,UPFCREI,PSE,UCL,Warwick,SSE,NEUDC,OxCarre,Stock-holmUniversity,ResearchInstit
5、uteofIndustrialEconomics,StockholmInstituteforTransitionEconomics,BREAD-GuanghuaSummerSchool,RenminUniversityofChinaandIIESfortheircomments.IalsothankChristinaL•onnbladforeditorialassistance.FinancialsupportfromHandelsbanken'sResearchFoundationsisgratefullyacknowledged.Anyremainingmistakesaremyow
6、n.1IntroductionHowdopoliticalincentivesa ecttheenvironment?Indemocracies,politiciansoftenfaceatrade-o betweencreatingjobstogainvotesandprotectingtheenvironment.TheIlvasteelworkspollutionscandalinsouthernItalyin2012isanexampleofdeliberatepoliticalneglectbecauseIlvawasanimportantjobprovider.Evenwit
7、houtelectoralincentives,politicianscanalsobeattractedbyrentso eredbyprivate rmsinexchangefortacitpermissiontoconductenvironmentallyharmfuleconomicactivities.GobalWitness(2012)reportsthatocialsandprivatecompaniesinLibe
