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1、ADecision-TheoreticApproachtoCollaboration:PrincipalDescriptionMethodsandEfficientHeuristicApproximationsFransA.OliehoekandArnoudVisser1IntroductionMakingdecisionsishard.Eventhoughwehumansmakethousandsofdecisionsaday,somedecisions,especiallyimportantones,ar
2、edifficulttomake.Thisisevenmoretruefordecisionmakingincomplexdynamicenvironments.Thischapterfo-cusesonsuchcomplexdecisionproblemsandparticularlyonsituationswheretherearemultipledecisionmakers,oragentswhichhavetocooperate.Whencomparedtocomputerssystems,human
3、sperformextremelywellinmak-ingmostdecisions.Still,thereisagrowingneedforthedevelopmentofintelligentdecisionsupportsystemsandimplementingcognitiveabilitiesinautonomousar-tificialagents,becausehumandecisionmakinghasitslimitations.Forinstance,humansituationawa
4、renessischaracterizedbystructuralbiasesandhumansareconservativeestimatorsascomparedtoapplyingforexampleBayesianstatisticsinhandlinguncertainties(Dawes,1988).Assuchhumandecisionmakingmaybesub-stantiallyimprovedwhenassistedbyintelligentdecisionsupportsystems
5、(DruzdzelandFlynn),providinganimportantsocialandeconomicincentivetodevelopsuchsystemswithintelligentbehavior.TheInteractiveCollaborativeInformationSystems(ICIS)project,whichhassupportedtheresearchreportedinthischapter,focusesonthedevelopmentofin-telligentt
6、echniquesandmethodsthatcanbeappliedindecisionsupportsystems.Itparticularlyaimstoimproveoverallqualityofinformationprocessinganddeci-sionmakingunderconditionsofstress,riskanduncertainty.Thefocusofthisworkisuncertaintyandthelackofknowledge.Forsystemstobeeffe
7、ctiveundersuchFransA.OliehoekIntelligentSystemLabotoryAmsterdam,SciencePark107,NL1098XGAmsterdam,TheNether-lands,e-mail:F.A.Oliehoek@uva.nlArnoudVisserIntelligentSystemLabotoryAmsterdam,SciencePark107,NL1098XGAmsterdam,TheNether-lands,e-mail:A.Visser@uva.n
8、l12FransA.OliehoekandArnoudVissercircumstancesimposesseveralrequirements.Amongtheserequirementsaretheca-pabilitiesto:1.Reachasetof(predetermined)goalsbyinfluencingtheenvironmentinwhichthesystemoperates.2.Beabl
