资源描述：
《英国-投资策略-英国脱欧：即将上任的领导，持续的挑战》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、PleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthisreportFOCUS
2、UK14June2019MARKETECONOMICS
3、G10FX
4、G10INTERESTRATES
5、EQUITY&DERIVATIVES
6、CREDITKEYMESSAGESTheUK’snewprimeministerwill,inourview,facethesamechallengesastheoutgoingone.TheEUisunlikelytomakesubstant
7、ialchangestotheagreeddeal,inourview.WeseeonlyaslimchanceofParliamentpassinganEUwithdrawaldealbeforetheend-Octoberexitdateandasignificantriskofano-dealBrexit.ThedeparturefromtheEUislikelytobeextended,wethink,perhapstoholdanotherreferendumorageneralelec
8、tion.Withallthreeterminaloutcomesstillopen–aBrexitdeal,ano-dealBrexitornoBrexit–weexpectuncertaintytoweighontheUKeconomyforawhileyet.Brexit–Incomingleader,ongoingchallengesSameBrexitchallenges:TheprocesstoelectanewleaderoftheConservativeParty–and,ther
9、efore,theUK’snextprimeminister–kickedoffinearnestthisweek(seeFigure1fortimetable).Atthetimeofwriting,therearesevencandidatesleftcompetingforthebackingoftheirfellowmembersofparliament,withBorisJohnsonaheadbysomemargin.Thepartyleadershipwillultimatelybe
10、decidedbyits160,000-strongmembership,soitislikelytotakeseveralweeksforthewinnertobeannounced,assumingnorepeatof2016,whenTheresaMaywonbydefaultafterallothercandidateswithdrew.MARKETVIEWSAbsentanysurpriseintheremainingleadershipballots,andwithParliament
11、duetobeonsummerrecessshortlyafterwards,weexpectlittlenewnegativeBrexitnewsflowahead.WekeeptacticallyneutralontheGBP.WeexpectUKCredittoremainrange-bound.*WecontinuetofavourlongFTSE1002020dividends(FXhedged),whichshouldperformunderasoft/no-Brexitorano-d
12、ealBrexitscenario.LookingaheadtoOctober,theend-Brexitoutlookremainshighlyuncertain.SeeDifferentend-gamescenariosbelowformoreonhowwewouldexpectmarketstoreactunderfivepossiblescenarios.Regardlessofwhoischosen,thebiggerpicture,inourview,isthatthenewleade
13、rwillfacethesamechallengesasMrsMay,andarguablyamidtoughercircumstances:addressingproblematicaspectsofthewithdrawaldealandbreakingtheparliamentarydeadlock.Fig1:TimetableofConservativeleadershipchangeSources:InstituteforGovernment,BNPParibas*Thi
