Natural Gas Liquids - Supply Outlook 2008-2015英文文献资料

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1、Natural Gas Liquids SupplyOutlook20082015OilIndustryandMarketsDivisionApril2010NATURALGASLIQUIDS–SUPPLYOUTLOOK2008‐2015SUMMARYSummaryGlobalNaturalGasLiquids(NGL)productionisforecasttogrowbynet3.3mb/dfrom2008to2015,with2.9mb/dofthegrowthcomingfromOPECand0

2、.4mb/dfromnon‐OPECcountries.GlobalincrementalNGLproductionthereforerepresentsasubstantialcontributiontototalgloballiquidsgrowth.AccordingtothelastmediumtermmarketupdateinDecember2009,netadditionsof3.1mb/dofNGLsmakeup60%oftotalliquidsgrowthfrom2008to2014,

3、asillustratedinthegraph,whereOPECcrudecapacitygrowsby2.3mb/d,non‐conventionalnon‐OPECliquidsgrowby1.4mb/dandnon‐OPECconventionalcrudedeclineby1.4mb/d.MostoftheNGLgrowthstemsfromOPECcountries,notablyQatar,Iran,SaudiArabiatheUAEandNigeria.OutsideofOPEC,Rus

4、siaandKazakhstanwillalsoseestronggrowth.ThelevelofexpectedgrowthinNGLsupplyhasimportantComponentsofGlobalLiquidsimplicationsfortheglobaloilrefiningsector,sinceNGLsmb/dGrowth2008-2014fromgasprocessingplantswillpotentiallydisplacerefinery‐6sourcedLPGornaph

5、tha,whilerisingcondensatesupplywill4impactuponthequalityoftherefinerycrudefeedstockslate.Condensatescanbespikedintoacrudeoilstream,2effectivelylighteningandsweeteningcrudesupplyandthey0alsohaveanimportantapplicationinactingasadiluentforheavy,viscousbitum

6、enandheavyoilexportstreams.More-2workisnecessarytoassesstheimpactoncondensateOPEC*Non_OPECTotaldemandandcrudetradeofthatparticularapplication.TheCrudeNGLNon-convdevelopmentofdedicatedcondensatesplittingcapacityto*OPECcrudeiscapacityadditionsdistilpetrole

7、umproductsdirectlyfromcondensateoutsideoftheconventionalrefiningsectorisanothertrendwhichbearsfurtheranalysis.AnimportantfindingofthisreviewhasbeenthatNGLoutputovertheforecastperiodincreasesatarateof4.0%,whilethemarketednaturalgasproductionincreasesbyonl

8、y1.2%.Asaconsequencetheliquidsratio(measuredasNGLsinkb/doverdrygasinkboe/d)overtheforecastperiodrisesfrom19.2%in2008to23.3%in2012,remainingatthatleveluntil2015.Howcomethatthenaturalgasapparentlybecomesmoreliquids‐proneover