Asia Steel – Outlook 2012 英文文献资料

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1、abGlobalEquityResearchAsiaUBSInvestmentResearchSteelAsiaSteel–Outlook2012SectorCommentOutlook20122December2011¢Summarywww.ubs.com/investmentresearchWeexpect2012tobeyetanotherrange-boundyearinAsiaamidconcernsofovercapacity,tepiddemandandrelativelyfirmrawmaterialp

2、rices.Weexpectmetalspreadstoremaindepressedin2012,moresoinH1thanH2,withglobalmacro-economicevents,governmentpoliciesandweatherbeingthekeyswingYong-SukSon,CFAfactors.WeexpectsteelpricestorecovermodestlyfromspringduetoinventoryAnalystre-stockbutbelievethecyclewillb

3、eshortandshallow.yongsuk.son@ubs.com+82-2-37028804¢KeyThemesfor20121)Whenwillmetalspreadsrecover?2)policyresponsesandthebeneficiariesthereof;3)sustainablegrowthinacyclicalindustry;4)supplyresponses,consolidationandshutdowns;5)weatherandpricingmechanismspertaining

4、torawmaterials.¢KeyCatalystsWebelievepotentialkeycatalystsonthedemandsidetobequickanddecisivepolicyresponsestocounterslowingeconomicgrowthinChina,EuropeandtheUS.Theinventorycyclecouldprovideattractivebuyingopportunities.Onthesupplyside,strongersupplydisciplineinA

5、siaandactualconsolidation/shutdownsofobsoletemillsinChinaratherthancontinuedrhetoricisthekeypotentialcatalyst.Stableinputcostshelpedbyfairweatherwouldbepositiveforthesector.¢Most&LeastPreferredStockIdeasfor2012Bycountry,wepreferChinamost,asweexpectpolicyeasingtop

6、rovidesupport,followedbyIndia(long-termgrowth),KoreaandTaiwan.Bystock,wemostpreferChinaMetalRecycling(CMR),HyundaiSteel(HSC)andFengHsinIron&Steel(FengHsin).WeleastpreferSteelAuthorityofIndia(SAIL),ChinaSteel(CSC)andDongkukSteelMill(DSM).Table1:AsiaSteelMostandLea

7、stPreferredListMarketCapPE2012ECompanyRIC(US$bn)UBSRatingSharePricePriceTarget(x)MostPreferredChinaMetalRecycling0773.HK1.3BuyHK$8.65HK$16.683.9HyundaiSteel004020.KS7.2BuyWon96,000Won115,0008.8FengHsinIron&Steel2015.TW0.9BuyNT$47.25NT$63.007.9LeastPreferredSAILSA

8、IL.BO6.4SellRs80.60Rs100.0011.0ChinaSteel2002.TW13.6NeutralNT$29.10NT$27.5019.8DongkukSteelMill001230.KS1.2NeutralWon21,900Won25,0009.0Abovedataasat30November2