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1、EducationandEconomicGrowthRobertJ.Barro1Sincethelate1980s,muchoftheattentionofmacroeconomistshasfocusedonlong-termissues,notablytheeffectsofgovernmentpoliciesonthelong-termrateofeconomicgrowth.Thisemphasisreflectstherecognitionthatthedifferencebetweenprosperityandpovertyforacountry
2、dependsonhowfastitgrowsoverthelongterm.Althoughstandardmacroeconomicpoliciesareimportantforgrowth,otheraspectsof“policy”—broadlyinterpretedtoencompassallgovernmentactivitiesthatmatterforeconomicperformance—areevenmoresignificant.Thispaperfocusesonhumancapitalasadeterminantofeconomi
3、cgrowth.Althoughhumancapitalincludeseducation,health,andaspectsof“socialcapital,”themainfocusofthepresentstudyisoneducation.Theanalysisstressesthedistinctionbetweenthequantityofeducation—measuredbyyearsofattainmentatvariouslevels—andthequality—gaugedbyscoresoninternationallycompara
4、bleexaminations.Therecognitionthatthedeterminantsoflong-termeconomicgrowthwerethecentralmacroeconomicproblemwasfortunatelyaccompaniedinthelate1980sbyimportantadvancesinthetheoryofeconomicgrowth.Thisperiodfeaturedthedevelopmentof“endogenous-growth”models,inwhichthelong-termrateofgro
5、wthwasdeterminedwithinthemodel.Akeyfeatureofthesemodelsisatheoryoftechnologicalprogress,viewedasaprocesswherebypurposefulresearchandapplicationleadovertime1HarvardUniversity.Thisresearchhasbeensupported,inpart,bytheNationalScienceFoundation.Itonewandbetterproductsandmethodsofproduc
6、tionandtotheadoptionofsuperiortechnologiesthatweredevelopedinothercountriesorsectors.OnemajorcontributorinthisareaisRomer(1990).Shortlythereafter,intheearly1990s,therewasagooddealofempiricalestimationofgrowthmodelsusingcross-countryandcross-regionaldata.Thisempiricalworkwas,insomes
7、ense,inspiredbytheexcitementoftheendogenous-growththeories.However,theframeworkfortheappliedworkowedmoretotheolder,neoclassicalmodel,whichwasdevelopedinthe1950sand1960s(seeSolow1956,Cass1965,Koopmans1965,theearliermodelofRamsey1928,andtheexpositioninBarroandSala-i-Martin1995).Thefr
8、ameworkusedinrecentempiric
