Multilateral Cooperation Is Key to Resolving Globa

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1、MultilateralCooperationIsKeytoResolvingGlobalFinancialImbalancesThecurrentsurgeinprivatecapitalflowshasoccurredinthemidstofmuch-improveddomesticpoliciesandglobalfinancialconditionscomparedwiththosethatprevailedduringthecapitalflowssurgeofthe1990s.多边合作是解

2、决全球金融失衡的关键所在与20世纪90年代资本流动激增的情况相比，当前私人资本流动激增伴随着国内政策和全球金融状况的大幅改善。Thistimearound,governmentshavesofargenerallymanagedtoavoidexcessiveexpansionofaggregatedemand,largecurrent-accountdeficits,andsharpappreciationsoftherealexchangerate.在这一过程中，各国政府迄今都尽量避免出现总需求过

3、度扩张、经常项目巨额赤字和实际汇率大幅升值的情况。However,thepolicyagendaformanagingcapitalflowsisbroadandcomplex,andconsiderablechallengesremain.但是，管理资本流动的政策议程既广泛、又复杂，依然存在重大挑战。Progresshadbeenmadeinsimplifyingtheverycomplexwebofcapitalcontrolsandexchangeraterestrictionsimposedb

4、ymanycountries.多国家的资本管理和汇率限制错综复杂，在简化这些措施方面，已经取得了进展。Butthegradualopeningofcapitalaccountsmustbeaccompaniedbyafurtherstrengtheningofmacroeconomicpolicies,thedevelopmentoflocalcapitalmarketsandtheinstitutionsneededtoregulatethem,andtheestablishmentofasyste

5、mofriskmanagementrobustenoughtorespondtotheneedsofamoreflexibleexchangerateandopencapitalaccount.但是，在逐步开放资本项目的同时，必须进一步加强宏观经济政策，发展本国资本市场和市场监管的相应制度，建立一个有力的风险管理体系，应对汇率制度更灵活、资本项目更开放所带来的需求。Liberalizationofthecapitalaccountonceimplementedisdifficulttoreverse.

6、Areturntocapitalcontrolsshouldbeseenonlyasapolicyoflastresort,tobeusedtodampenexcessiveexchangeratevolatilityormoderatelargeinflowsofcapitalwhenotherpolicies,suchasinterestratesandinterventioninforeignexchangemarkets,provefruitless.资本项目一旦开放，就难以逆转。重返资本管

7、制应该被看作最后的政策举措，只是用来抑制汇率的过度波动，或者是在利率和干预外汇市场等政策证明无效时，用来调节资本的大量流入Despitetheconsiderableimprovementinpoliciesinrecentyears,thesurgeincapitalflowsstillpresentssubstantialriskstodevelopingcountries.Futureriskstoeconomicandfinancialstabilitywilllikelytakeadiffe

8、rentformandcharacterthanthoseencounteredinthepast—andmayexposeinstitutionalandmacroeconomicweaknessesthatcannotbeanticipatedatthisjuncture.虽然近年来在政策方面进行了较大改进，资本流动的激增依然给发展中国家带来了重大风险。与过去遇到的风险有所不同，经济和金融稳定今后面临的风险很可能改头换面，也可能暴露出现在还无法预料的