《义不确定性》PPT课件

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1、ChapterTwelveUncertaintyStructureStatecontingentconsumption(依情形而定的消费）State-contingentbudgetconstraintPreferencesunderuncertaintyChoiceunderuncertaintyRiskaversionDiversificationandriskspreadingUncertaintyisPervasiveWhatisuncertainineconomicsystems?tomorrow’sprices

2、futurewealthfutureavailabilityofcommoditiespresentandfutureactionsofotherpeople.UncertaintyisPervasiveWhatarerationalresponsestouncertainty?buyinginsurance(health,life,auto)aportfolioofcontingentconsumptiongoods.StatesofNaturePossiblestatesofNature:“caraccident”(a

3、)“nocaraccident”(na).Accidentoccurswithprobabilitya,doesnotwithprobabilityna;a+na=1.Accidentcausesalossof$L.ContingenciesAcontractimplementedonlywhenaparticularstateofNatureoccursisstate-contingent.E.g.theinsurerpaysonlyifthereisanaccident.ContingenciesAstate

4、-contingentconsumptionplanisimplementedonlywhenaparticularstateofNatureoccurs.E.g.takeavacationonlyifthereisnoaccident.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsEach$1ofaccidentinsurancecosts.Consumerhas$mofwealth.Cnaisconsumptionvalueintheno-accidentstate.Caisconsumption

5、valueintheaccidentstate.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCaState-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCa2017Astate-contingentconsumptionwith$17consumptionvalueintheaccidentstateand$20consumptionvalueintheno-accidentstate.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsWithoutinsura

6、nce,Ca=m-LCna=m.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+

7、L)/(1-)State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-)AndCna=m-(Ca-m+L)/(1-)State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.（K为premium(保费)）Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-)

8、AndCna=m-(Ca-m+L)/(1-)I.e.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.State-Co