《义不确定性》PPT课件

《《义不确定性》PPT课件》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。

1、ChapterTwelveUncertaintyStructureStatecontingentconsumption(依情形而定的消费）State-contingentbudgetconstraintPreferencesunderuncertaintyChoiceunderuncertaintyRiskaversionDiversificationandriskspreadingUncertaintyisPervasiveWhatisuncertainineconomicsystems?tomorrow’s

2、pricesfuturewealthfutureavailabilityofcommoditiespresentandfutureactionsofotherpeople.UncertaintyisPervasiveWhatarerationalresponsestouncertainty?buyinginsurance(health,life,auto)aportfolioofcontingentconsumptiongoods.StatesofNaturePossiblestatesofNature:“ca

3、raccident”(a)“nocaraccident”(na).Accidentoccurswithprobabilitya,doesnotwithprobabilityna;a+na=1.Accidentcausesalossof$L.ContingenciesAcontractimplementedonlywhenaparticularstateofNatureoccursisstate-contingent.E.g.theinsurerpaysonlyifthereisanaccident.C

4、ontingenciesAstate-contingentconsumptionplanisimplementedonlywhenaparticularstateofNatureoccurs.E.g.takeavacationonlyifthereisnoaccident.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsEach$1ofaccidentinsurancecosts.Consumerhas$mofwealth.Cnaisconsumptionvalueintheno-accid

5、entstate.Caisconsumptionvalueintheaccidentstate.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCaState-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCa2017Astate-contingentconsumptionwith$17consumptionvalueintheaccidentstateand$20consumptionvalueintheno-accidentstate.State-Contingent

6、BudgetConstraintsWithoutinsurance,Ca=m-LCna=m.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-

7、K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-)State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-)AndCna=m-(Ca-m+L)/(1-)State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.（K为premium(保费)

8、）Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-)AndCna=m-(Ca-m+L)/(1-)I.e.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.State-Co