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1、TheoilpriceRecoil油价反弹May29th2008FromTheEconomistprinteditionPainfulthoughitis,thisoilshockwilleventuallyspurhugechange.BewarethehuntforscapegoatsINTHEearly1970safourfoldriseinthepriceofoilalmostbroughttheworldtoastandstill.TheshockoftheArabembargolefta
2、deepmarkinmanycountries:Americasubjecteditscarstofuel-efficiencystandards,Franceembracednuclearpower—thoughsadly“energy-consciousfashion”,theinspirationforJapan'sfetchingshort-sleevedbusinesssuit,wasaheadofitstime.Thirty-fiveyearson,oilpriceshavequadru
3、pledagain,brieflysoaringtoapeakofjustover$135abarrel.But,sofar,thishasbeenaslow-motionoilshock.IftheAraboil-weaponfeltlikeahammer-blow,thistimestagnantoiloutputandgrowingemerging-marketdemandhavesqueezedtheoilmarketlikeavice.Foralmostfiveyearsagrowingw
4、orldshruggeditoff.Onlynowisitrecoilinginpain.ThisweekFrenchfishermencloggeduptheportofDunkirkandBritishlorry-driverschokedroadsintoLondonandCardiff.NicolasSarkozy,France'spresident,suggestedsubsidisingtheworstaffectedandcurbingtaxesonpetrol;Britain'sbe
5、leagueredgovernmentisbeingpressedtoforgoitstaxincreasesonmotorists.InAmericafallinghousepriceshaveleftconsumersresentful—andshortofmoney.Congressandpresidentialcandidateshavebeendraftingschemesandgas-taxholidayslikesomanycampaignleaflets.GordonBrown,Br
6、itain'sprimeminister,thinksthebigoilproducerscanbepersuadedtocometotherescue.ButonlySaudiArabiashowsanyenthusiasmforthat.Elsewhere,outputisgrowingagonisinglyslowly.Thatiscausinghardshipandrecrimination.Butitcouldalsocometorepresentanopportunity.Theslow
7、-motionshockseemsirresistibletoday,butintimeitwillgiverisetoanequallyunstoppableandmorepositiveslow-motionreaction(seearticle).ActionreplayItisclearthathighoilpricesarehurtingmanyeconomies—especiallyintherichworld.GoldmanSachsreckonsconsumersarehanding
8、over$1.8trillionayeartooilproducers.Thewage-pricespiralofthe1970shasbeenavoided,buttheincomeshockispainful.Besetbyscarcecredit,fallingassetpricesandcostlyfood,developed-countryhouseholdsarehardlywell-equippedtofoottheoilbill.America'sem
