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1、Vol.18No.2JournalofSystemsScienceandComplexityApr.,2005CRUDEOILPRICEFORECASTINGWITHTEI@IMETHODOLOGY∗WANGShouyang(InstituteofSystemsScience,AcademyofMathematicsandSystemsScience,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100080,China;SchoolofManagement,GraduateSchoolofChineseAcademyofSciences,Chi
2、neseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100049,China.Email:swang@iss.ac.cn)YULean(InstituteofSystemsScience,AcademyofMathematicsandSystemsScience,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100080,China;SchoolofManagement,GraduateSchoolofChineseAcademyofSciences,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100049,China)
3、K.K.LAI(DepartmentofManagementSciences,CityUniversityofHongKong,TatCheeAvenue,Kowloon,HongKong;CollegeofBusinessAdministration,HunanUniversity,Changsha410082,China)Abstract.Thedifficultyincrudeoilpriceforecasting,duetoinherentcomplexity,hasattractedmuchattentionofacademicresearchersandb
4、usinesspractitioners.Variousmeth-odshavebeentriedtosolvetheproblemofforecastingcrudeoilprices.However,alloftheexistingmodelsofpredictioncannotmeetpracticalneeds.Veryrecently,WangandYuproposedanewmethodologyforhandlingcomplexsystems—TEI@Imethodologybymeansofasystematicintegrationoftext
5、mining,econometricsandintelligenttechniques.WithintheframeworkofTEI@Imethodology,econometricalmodelsareusedtomodelthelinearcomponentsofcrudeoilpricetimeseries(i.e.,maintrends)whilenonlinearcompo-nentsofcrudeoilpricetimeseries(i.e.,errorterms)aremodelledbyusingartificialneuralnetwork(AN
6、N)models.Inaddition,theimpactofirregularandinfrequentfutureeventsoncrudeoilpriceisexploredusingweb-basedtextmining(WTM)andrule-basedexpertsystems(RES)techniques.Thus,afullynovelnonlinearintegratedforecastingapproachwitherrorcorrectionandjudgmentaladjustmentisformulatedtoimprovepredict
7、ionper-formancewithintheframeworkoftheTEI@Imethodology.Theproposedmethodologyandthenovelforecastingapproachareillustratedviaanexample.Keywords.TEI@Imethodology,oilpriceforecasting,textmining,econometrics,intel-ligence,integration.1IntroductionOilplaysanincreasinglysignificantroleinthew
8、orlde
