棚改淘金热之后的中国房地产

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1、Whyreadthisreport?uWeanalysewhatthescalingbackofChina’smassiveshantytownredevelopmentprojectmeansforthepropertymarketuWeidentifynineprovinceswhereresidentialsalesrelyheavilyoncashfromshantytowncompensation,andwherethenumberofnewreplacementflatsisbeingcutsharplyuThedeveloperswhoselandbankshav

2、ethehighestexposuretolower-tiercityinthesenineprovincesareLongfor,GZR&FandCountryGardenMichelleKwok*HeadofRealEstateResearch,AsiaPacificTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+85229966918AlbertTam*AnalystTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedalbert.p.

3、h.tam@hsbc.com.hk+85228224395SimonSin*AssociateTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedsimon.k.c.sin@hsbc.com.hk+85229966514MaxLiang*AssociateTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedmax.liang@hsbc.com.hk+85229966629YiqinLu*AssociateShanghai*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecur

4、ities(USA)Inc.andnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsFactsandfiguresaboutChina’shugeshantytownprojectuBetween2014and2020,thenumberofshantytownnewstartsisexpectedtoreachmorethan30m(source:MOHURD).Weestimatethatthisaffectsmorethan100mpeople,nearly8%ofChina’spopulation.uInvestment

5、inshantytownredevelopmenttoppedRMB5trnover2016-18(source:MOHURD).Thisrepresents40%ofthevalueofresidentialhousingtransactionsin2018.uShantytownspendingin2018wasRMB1,740bn,largerthanthecombinedmarketcapofUSvideostreaminggiantNetflixInc.andChina’siQiyi(source:Reuters).uPledgedsupplementarylendi

6、ng(PSL),amonetarytoolusedtosupportshantytownredevelopment,recordedaCAGRof46%from2015-18(sources:PBoC).ThisisthesamegrowthrateintermsofrevenueachievedbyChina’sAlibabaGroup.uThenumberofnewconstructionsstartsrelatedtoshantytownprojectswas6.26munitsin2018,about34%ofthecountry’stotalnewconstructi

7、onstarts(sources:MOHURD,HSBC).uIntermsofgrossfloorarea,cashcompensationofferedtoresidentsgenerated19%ofnationalsalesin2017(sources:MOHURD,HSBC).uInventoriesin80majorcitieswere20%belowthelevelin2014(source:CRIC).Theshantytowninitiativewasamajorfacto