林毅夫-如何来评价传统的赶超战略

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1、中国经济专题-2003年秋-第六讲第六讲：如何来评价传统的赶超战略?（《中国经济专题》教学影音资料第8讲－上）2.Theperformanceoftheleap-forwardstrategy.1.Therateofaccumulation(table3.1).1stFYP(53-57)24.22ndFYP(58-62)30.863-6522.73rdFYP(66-70)26.34th(71-75)33.02.Thestructureofinvestment(table3.2)ALHO1stFYP7.16.436.250.32ndFYP11.36.454.028.363-6517.

2、63.945.932.63rdFYP10.74.451.133.84th9.85.849.634.83.Thesectorweight(table3.3)525762657075Agri.57.746.848.146.240.437.8Indu.19.528.332.836.441.046.0Other22.824.519.217.418.616.25中国经济专题-2003年秋-第六讲4.Thegrowthrate(table3.1)--GDP1stFYP(53-57)9.12ndFYP(58-62)-2.263-6514.93rdFYP(66-70)6.94th(71-75)5.

3、553-786.05.Sectorweight,internationalcomparison.(fig.3.1)Themanufacturingsectorislargerthanthatofatypicalmiddleincomecountry.Figure3.1.3.Theproblemoftheleap-forwardstrategy1.Structuraldistortiona.Employmentstructure.(table3.4)why?Agr.Ind.Other5283.56.010.55781.25.912.96581.66.412.07873.312.514

4、.2b.Urbanization(table3.5)10020030040050022.036.243.949.052.7ChneryandSyrquin,PatternsofDevelopment,1950-70.Chinain195212.55中国经济专题-2003年秋-第六讲in198019.42.Incentiveproblema.Shareofworkingcapitalintotalcapital(table3.9).China198132.7India197927.9Korea19637.0Japan195319.9England197012.6USSR197229.

5、5Source:WorldBank,1984,ChinaEconomicStructureinInternationalPerspective.b.incentive(table3.8).TheProductionofGDP(in1980dollars)EnergyStealTransk.Coal/Ton/Ton.km/US$M.US$US$China2.90127.33.10India1.7798.41.67Korea1.12113.80.47Brazil0.8857.11.40Japan0.5163.00.41France0.4530.95中国经济专题-2003年秋-第六讲US

6、1.0544.81.80England0.5730.0German0.4943.7Source:WorldBank,1984,ChinaEconomicStructureinInternationalPerspective.3.Theresulta.LowTotalFactorProductivityGrowth(Table3.10)TFPGrowthRateTFPgrowthinperannuminGDPgrowthChina:1952-810.53(-1.0)8(-17)1952-750.3(-1.1)5(-18)1975-811.0(-0.3)17(-5)Brazil:195

7、0-603.7541955-702.1341966-741.622Korea:1955-602.0471955-705.0571960-734.142Spain1959-655.044Japan:1952-713.8381952-645.1531966-734.5415中国经济专题-2003年秋-第六讲US:1947-601.4381960-731.330USSR1950-601.9321960-701.5291960-701.5291970-750.13Averag