发展战略与经济收敛--林毅夫

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1、TheInauguralD.GaleJohnsonLectureDevelopmentStrategyandEconomicConvergence*byJustinYifuLinPekingUniversityandHongKongUniversityofScience&TechnologyMay14,2001(PreliminaryDraft)SummaryPotentially,theless-developedcountriescouldobtainfasterrateoftechnologicalinnovationthanthedevelopedcountriesbyborrowin

2、gtechnologyfromthedevelopedcountriesandnarrowtheirincome/technologygapswiththedevelopedcountries.However,theconvergencehasoccurredonlyinasmallnumberofless-developedeconomiesinEastAsia.Iwillarguethattheindustry/technologystructureofaneconomyisendogenouslydeterminedbyitsfactorendowmentsstructure.Theac

3、hievementofEastAsianNIEscouldbeexplainedbytheirbetterobservationoftheprincipleofcomparativeadvantagesintheirindustry/technologychoicesateachstageoftheirdevelopment.ThisdevelopmentstrategyallowstheEastAsianNIEstoborrowtechnologyeasilyfromtheadvancedcountriesandtohavearapidupgradingoftheirfactorendowm

4、ents.Onthecontrary,thepoorperformingless-developedcountriesfollowedacomparative-advantages-defyingstrategy.Theempiricalfindingsfromcross-countryanalysesshowthatthecomparativeadvantagefollowingordefyinginthechoiceoftechnology/industryisanimportantfactorexplainingacountry’ssuccessorfailuretoconvergeto

5、thedevelopedcountries.Thereforeagovernment'sdevelopmentpolicyshouldaimtofacilitateitsenterprises'exploitationofcomparativeadvantagesintheirchoiceofindustry/technologysoastofacilitatetheeconomy’supgradingoffactorendowments.*IammostgratefulforthehelpofMingxingLiuandQiZhangforthepreparationofthislectur

6、e.1I.IntroductionAftertheindustrialrevolutioninthe18thcentury,countriesintheworldcanbedividedintotwogroups.Thefirstgroupistherich,industrialized,developedcountries(DCs).Thesecondgroupisthepoor,agrarian,lessdevelopedcountries(LDCs).Countriesinthefirstgroupuseextensivelymodern,capital-intensivetechnol

7、ogiesintheirproductionwhereascountriesinthesecondgroupusesmainlyoutdatedtechnologies.Thewealthofdevelopedcountriesisaresultoftheirindustrialandtechnologicaladvantages.Howtoindustrializetheirnationsand