麦肯锡-中国移动通信市场分析

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1、CONFIDENTIALChina’sMobileTelecomServicesIndustryOverviewGCOPracticeDevelopmentMay2002ThisreportissolelyfortheuseofFirmpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSANDREFERENCESMGMsandCSSinvolvedi

2、ntherelevantstudiesincludethefollowing:TonyPerkins(BEI)StefanAlbrecht(BEI)ChipperBoulas(HKO)PeterKenevan(TOK)PerchowJosephChang(SHA)AndrewWu(HKO)HaiWu(BEI)JaneXing(HK)YiFeng(BEI)ShengFLi(SHA)YoshinobuTakanuki(TOK)GraemeHunter(JOH)JuliaYang(BEI)EricXu(BEI)JasonLiu(BEI)ShirleyChen(BEI)T

3、heseriesofPDsincludethefollowing:#ChinaMacroeconomicEnvironment#China’sMobileTelecomServiceIndustryOverview#China’sInternetIndustryOverview#ChinaTelecomEquipmentandServicesOverview#China’sMobileHandsetSectorOverview#ChinaTelecomIndustryRegulatoryOverview#KeySuccessFactorsandCaseStudie

4、sofMNCsEntrytoChina102PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptKEYMESSAGES1.China’smobiletelecomservicemarketishugeandfastgrowing,representingUS$21billionmarketsizein2001andUS$38billionin2005.Thismarketissupportedbytheworld’slargestsubscriber(用户)baseat145million,alreadycomprising

5、15%oftheworld’stotalin2001andgrowingtopotentially218millioninalowcaseor300millioninahighcaseby20052.Thecompetitivelandscapeformobileserviceshasevolvedfromasingleregulatorandoperatortotoday’sduopoly（双寡头）ofChinaUnicomandChinaMobile,bothofwhomareunassociatedwiththeMinistry（财政部）ofInformat

6、ionIndustries.AsecondbreakupofChinaTelecomisexpectedtoformtwolargetelecomoperators,ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomGroup,whoarelikelytoreceivemobilelicenses.Afifthtelecomoperator,ChinaRailcom,alsohasthepotentialofreceivingathirdgenerationlicenseandbuildingamobilebusiness.Fornow,ChinaMobiled

7、ominatesthemarketwith82%valueshareand72%subscribershareandownsmuchofthehighvalueuserbase.Howeverchurn（用户流失）isalreadyhighandisexpectedtoincreasewithcontinuingpricingpressuresandincreasedcompetition.3.WirelessdataservicesareexpectedtogrowquicklyinChinatoamarketofpotentiallyoverUS$4billi

8、onby2