麦肯锡-中国移动通信市场分析

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1、CONFIDENTIALChina’sMobileTelecomServicesIndustryOverviewGCOPracticeDevelopmentMay2002ThisreportissolelyfortheuseofFirmpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSANDREFE

2、RENCESMGMsandCSSinvolvedintherelevantstudiesincludethefollowing:TonyPerkins(BEI)StefanAlbrecht(BEI)ChipperBoulas(HKO)PeterKenevan(TOK)PerchowJosephChang(SHA)AndrewWu(HKO)HaiWu(BEI)JaneXing(HK)YiFeng(BEI)ShengFLi(SHA)YoshinobuTakanuki(TOK)GraemeHunter(JOH)Julia

3、Yang(BEI)EricXu(BEI)JasonLiu(BEI)ShirleyChen(BEI)TheseriesofPDsincludethefollowing:#ChinaMacroeconomicEnvironment#China’sMobileTelecomServiceIndustryOverview#China’sInternetIndustryOverview#ChinaTelecomEquipmentandServicesOverview#China’sMobileHandsetSectorOve

4、rview#ChinaTelecomIndustryRegulatoryOverview#KeySuccessFactorsandCaseStudiesofMNCsEntrytoChina102PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptKEYMESSAGES1.China’smobiletelecomservicemarketishugeandfastgrowing,representingUS$21billionmarketsizein2001andUS$38bi

5、llionin2005.Thismarketissupportedbytheworld’slargestsubscriberbaseat145million,alreadycomprising15%oftheworld’stotalin2001andgrowingtopotentially218millioninalowcaseor300millioninahighcaseby20052.Thecompetitivelandscapeformobileserviceshasevolvedfromasinglereg

6、ulatorandoperatortotoday’sduopolyofChinaUnicomandChinaMobile,bothofwhomareunassociatedwiththeMinistryofInformationIndustries.AsecondbreakupofChinaTelecomisexpectedtoformtwolargetelecomoperators,ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomGroup,whoarelikelytoreceivemobilelicense

7、s.Afifthtelecomoperator,ChinaRailcom,alsohasthepotentialofreceivingathirdgenerationlicenseandbuildingamobilebusiness.Fornow,ChinaMobiledominatesthemarketwith82%valueshareand72%subscribershareandownsmuchofthehighvalueuserbase.Howeverchurnisalreadyhighandisexpec

8、tedtoincreasewithcontinuingpricingpressuresandincreasedcompetition.3.WirelessdataservicesareexpectedtogrowquicklyinChinatoamarketofpotentiallyoverUS$4billionby2005,usedby43%ofallmo