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1、ONTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENHISTORICCOST,FORWARD-LOOKINGCOSTANDLONGRUNMARGINALCOSTbyWilliamP.Rogerson*NorthwesternUniversityOctober3,2005*IwouldliketothankDebraAron,KathleenHagerty,JackHughes,VolckerNocke,StefanReichelstein,WilliamSharkey,andJeanTiroleforhelpfuldiscuss
2、ionsandcomments.ABSTRACTThispaperconsidersasimplemodelwhereafirmmustmakesunkinvestmentsinlong-livedassetsinordertoproduceoutput,thereareconstantreturnstoscalewithineachperiod,andthereplacementcostofassetsisweaklyfallingovertime.Itisshownthat,solongasdemandisweaklyi
3、ncreasingovertime,asimpleformulacanbeusedtocalculatethelongrunmarginalcostofproductioneachperiodandthatthefirmbreaksevenifpricesaresetequaltolongrunmarginalcost.Furthermore,theformulaforcalculatinglongrunmarginalcostcanbeinterpretedaseitheraformulaforcalculatingfor
4、wardlookingcost(wherethecurrentcostofusingassetsisbasedonthecurrentreplacementcostofassets)orasaformulaforcalculatinghistoriccost(wherethecurrentcostofusingassetsisbasedontheactualhistoricpurchasecostofassets.)Inparticular,then,thepaperidentifiesasetofcircumstances
5、inwhichtraditionalaccountingrulesthatallocatethecostofpurchasingassetsacrossallperiodsthattheassetswillbeusedcanbeusedtocalculatethetruelongrunmarginalcostofproduction.Theresulthasapplicationsbothtothetheoryofcalculatingefficientpricesundercost-basedregulationandto
6、thetheoryofhowfor-profitfirmsuseaccountingdatatoorganizeandguidetheirdecision-making.INTRODUCTIONUndertraditionalrateofreturnregulation,theperperiodcostofusinglong-livedassetstoproducegoodsandservicesiscalculatedbyallocatingtheoriginalpurchasecostofeachassetacrossa
7、lloftheperiodsthattheassetwillbeused.Sincethecostofusinglong-livedassetsinanygivenperiodwillthereforedependontheoriginalpurchasecostsofalloftheassetsbeingusedinthatperiod,suchcostsareoftenreferredtoas“historically-basedcosts”orsimply“historiccosts.”Inthetelecommuni
8、cationsindustry,thereplacementcostofmanyofthelong-livedassetsthatfirmsusetoproducetelecommunicationsserviceshasbeendroppingdramaticallyovertimedu
