Managed Chaos - The Fragility of the Chinese Miracle

Managed Chaos - The Fragility of the Chinese Miracle

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1、ManagedChaosiiManagedChaosManagedChaosTheFragilityoftheChineseMiraclePremShankarJhaCopyright©ObserverResearchFoundation,2009Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedorutilizedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,orbyanyinformatio

2、nstorageorretrievalsystem,withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Firstpublishedin2009bySAGEPublicationsIndiaPvtLtdB-1/I-1MohanCooperativeIndustrialAreaMathuraRoad,NewDelhi110044,Indiawww.sagepub.inSAGEPublicationsInc2455TellerRoadThousandOaks,California91320,USASAGEPublica

3、tionsLtd1OliversYard55CityRoadLondonEC1Y1SP,UnitedKingdomSAGEPublicationsAsia-PacificPteLtd33PekinStreet#02-01FarEastSquareSingapore048763PublishedbyVivekMehraforSAGEPublicationsIndiaPvtLtd,typesetin10/12ptSabonbyStarCompugraphicsPrivateLimited,DelhiandprintedatChamanEnterprise

4、s,NewDelhi.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataAvailableISBN:978-81-321-0076-8(HB)TheSAGETeam:RekhaNatrajan,SejutiDasgupta,AnjuSaxenaandTrinankurBanerjeeToJaiandAmayaviManagedChaosContentsListofTablesviiiPrefaceix1MixedFeelings12ConflictingViewsonChinasDevelopment93Do

5、ubleDigitGrowth?174Friction-freeGrowth?225CadreCapitalism316WhyPurelyEconomicRemediesHaveNotWorked457AnAncientStruggleinaNewGuise578RecessionandtheBirthofClassConflict709TheEmergenceofthePredatoryState8410RetainingtheMandateofHeaven12111TheChallengeAhead151Notes161References171

6、Index180AbouttheAuthor187ListofTables3.1UnexplainedShareofGrowth(percent)174.1AccumulationofUnsoldCommercialHomes(insq.moffloorspace)254.2ConsumptionofPrimaryInputsandKeyIntermediateProductsUsedinManufacture19782004,AnnualGrowth294.3IndicatorsofEconomicPerformance,19782004,Annu

7、alGrowth305.1MaterialsIntensityofGrowthinChina39(inpercentage)5.2MaterialsIntensityofGrowthinIndia40(inpercentage)5.3ShareofChina,IndiaandtheUSinWorldConsumptionofKeyRawMaterials(inpercentage)427.1InternationalComparisonoftheEnterpriseorFacilityinEnergyIntensiveIndustry(2004)6

8、27.2CentralandLocalSharesofRevenueandExpenditure19852004678.1

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