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1、PREVIEWEDITION“AhistoriceconomicdownturnhasputatstaketheprosperitythatunderpinsourstrengthwhileputtingGLOBALSTRATEGICASSESSMENT2009atriskthestabilityofgovernmentsandsurvivalofpeoplearoundtheworld.We’rethreatenedbythespreadoftheworld’sdeadliestweapons,byemergingcyberthreats,andbyadependence
2、onforeignoilthatendangersoursecurityandourplanet.Poverty,disease,thepersistenceofconflictandgenocideinthe21stcenturychallengeourinternationalalliances,partnershipsandinstitutionsandmustcallonallofustoreexamineourassumptions.Thesearethebattlefieldsofthe21stcentury.Thesearethethreatswenowfac
3、e.Andinthesestruggles,theUnitedStatesofAmericamustsucceedandwewillsucceed.Wealsoknowthattheoldapproacheswon’tmeetthechallengesofourtime.Threatsnowmovefreelyacrossbordersandtheabilitytodogreatharmliesinthehandsofindividualsaswellasnations.Notechnology,nomatterhowsmart,canstopthespreadofnucl
4、earweapons.Noarmy,nomatterhowAmericA’ssecurityrolestrong,caneliminateeveryadversary.Noweapon,nomatterhowpowerful,canerasethehatredthatliesinsomeone’sheart.”—PresidentBarackObamainALincolnHallDedicationSpeechNationalDefenseUniversitychAngingWorldWashington,D.C.March12,2009INSSINSTITUTEFORNA
5、TIONALSTRATEGICSTUDIESINSSPublishedbynduPressforInstitutefornationalstrategicstudies,InstItutefornatIonalstrategIcstudIesnationaldefenseuniversityINSTITUTEFORNATIONALSTRATEGICSTUDIESFrontcover(toprow,lefttoright):nightviewofShanghai’sInsidebackcover(toptobottom):JapanAirSelfDefenseForcefin
6、ancialdistrict(ImaginechinaviaAPImages/ZhouJunxiang);F–2fighteratAndersenAirForceBase,Guam(U.S.AirForce/CanadianprimeministergreetsPresidentObamainOttawaCourtneyWitt);GermanKosovoForcesoldierchecksidentifica-(APPhoto/TheCanadianPress/FredChartrand);Iranianpresi-tionpapers(KFOR/ChristianKor
7、ff);ChinareadiesLongMarchdentinspectsNatanzUraniumEnrichmentFacility(APPhoto/2Frocketforcountry’sthirdmannedspaceflight(ImaginechinaIranianPresident’sOffice).Bottomrow,lefttoright:ChairmanviaAPImages/XuHaihan);andself-propelled,semisubmers-oftheJointChiefsofSt
