入场时间与资本结构 market_timing_capital_structure

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1、MarketTimingandCapitalStructureMotivation1:•Theexistof“equitymarkettiming”.–Firmstendtoissueequitywhenmarketvalueishigh,relativetobookvalueandpastmarketvalues,andrepurchaseequitywhenmarketvalueislow.•ThefindingsaredifficulttoreconcilewiththeMM’scapitalstructureirreveren

2、ttheory.•Ininefficientorsegmentedcapitalmarkets,markettimingbenefitsongoingshareholdersattheexpenseofenteringandexitingones.–Managersthushaveincentivestotimethemarket.2Motivation2:•Manycorporatefinancingdecisionsdependonequitymarkettiming.•Thereisevidenceinfourdifferent

3、kindsofstudies.studiesfindingsfinancingfirmstendtoissueequityinsteadofdebtwhendecisionsmarketvalueishighandtendtorepurchaseequitywhenmarketvalueislowlong-runstockequitymarkettimingissuccessfulonaveragereturnsearningsfirmstendtoissueequityattimeswhenforecastsinvestorsare

4、rathertooenthusiasticaboutearningsprospectsmarkettimingmanagersadmittomarkettimingsurveys3Purposeandconclusion1:•Wewouldliketoknowhowequitymarkettimingaffectscapitalstructure.–Thebasicquestioniswhethermarkettiminghasashort-runoralong-runimpact.–Oneexpectsatleastamechani

5、cal,short-runimpact.–Iffirmssubsequentlyrebalanceawaytheinfluenceofmarkettimingfinancingdecisions,thenmarkettimingwouldhavenopersistentimpactoncapitalstructure.•Theconclusionisthatmarkettiminghaslarge,persistenteffectsoncapitalstructure.4Purposeandconclusion2:•Theresult

6、sareexplainedwithsometheoryofcapitalstructure.TheoryViewsResultTrade-offMarket-to-bookisanindicatorofinvestmentinconsistenttheoryopportunities,risk,agency,orsomeotherdeterminantoftheoptimaltradeoffbetweenequityanddebt.PeckingFirmswithupcominginvestmentopportunitiesIncon

7、sistentordertheorymayreduceleveragetoavoidissuingequityinthefuture.ManagerialHighmarketvaluationsallowmanagerstoaddconsistententrenchmeequitybutalsoallowthemtobecomenttheoryentrenched,resistingthedebtfinancenecessarytorestoredebttotheoptimum.MarketCapitalstructureisthec

8、umulativeoutcomeofconsistenttimingattemptstotimetheequitymarket.5theoryCapitalStructureandPastMarketValuations