降雨型泥石流临界雨量定量分析

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1、第25卷增1岩石力学与工程学报Vol.25Supp.12006年2月ChineseJournalofRockMechanicsandEngineeringFeb.2006降雨型泥石流临界雨量定量分析11233丛威青潘懋李铁锋任群智李仁锋(1.北京大学地球与空间科学学院造山带与地壳演化教育部重点实验室北京1008712.中国地质环境监测院北京1000813.辽宁省冶金地质勘查局地质勘查研究院辽宁鞍山114002)摘要利用Logistic回归模型对当日雨量和前期有效降雨量进行回归分析形成了一整套对降

2、雨型泥石流临界雨量进行定量分析的方法并在辽宁省岫岩县进行了试用在收集灾害发生当日各雨量站点雨量数据的基础上采用等值线法将点雨量转变成面雨量从而获得灾害发生对应雨量进而采用向前顺推的办法获得灾害未发生时所对应降雨量并利用Logistic回归模型确定最佳雨量计算天数然后基于Logistic回归模型对灾害发生及未发生样本对应的当日雨量和前期有效降雨量进行回归分析有效降雨量系数分别采用了经验值(0.84)和利用岫岩雨量水文数据计算得到的实际数值(0.61)分析结果表明该方法具有较好的分类效果可对于泥石流

3、灾害做到了定量化预测利用两种有效降雨量系数计算得到的结果都具有较好的预报效果关键词边坡工程泥石流临界雨量Logistic回归前期有效降雨量中图分类号P642.22文献标识码A文章编号1000–6915(2006)增1–2808–05QUANTITATIVEANALYSISOFCRITICALRAINFALL-TRIGGEREDDEBRISFLOWS11233CONGWeiqingPANMaoLITiefengRENQunzhiLIRenfeng(1.TheKeyLaboratoryofOroge

4、nicBeltsandCrustalEvolutionMinistryofEducationSchoolofEarthandSpaceSciencesPekingUniversityBeijing100871China2.ChinaInstituteofGeoenvironmentalMonitoringBeijing100081China3.GeologicExplorationInstituteLiaoningBureauofGeologyandMineralExplorationforMe

5、tallurgyAnshanLiaoning114002China)AbstractAmultidisciplinaryapproachbasedonlogisticregressionandantecedenteffectiverainfallwasadoptedtostudytheverycomplexphenomenonofrainfall-triggereddebrisflows.Anintegratedmethodforquantitativeanalysisofcriticalrai

6、nfallhasbeenpromoted.AndatestofthisapproachwasappliedinXiuyanLiaoningProvince.RainfallsarethemaininducementfactorsofdebrisflowsinChina.Soitisveryimportanttostudytherelationshipbetweenrainfallanddebrisflows.Butmanydifferentsubjectssuchasgeologymeteoro

7、logyhydrologyandagrologyaremutuallyacted.Sothereisnotanyuniversalmethodtocalculatethecriticalrainfall.Therainfalldayswhendebrisflowshappenedornotwerecollectedfromrainfallstages.Thenpointrainfallwasconvertedintosurfacethroughisolinemethod.Thustherainf

8、allcorrespondingtothehappeningofdebrisflowswasobtained.Therainfallsamplesofsafedaysweregainedthroughcountingaheadandthemostsuitabledaysforanalysiswerecomputedthroughlogisticregression.Thentherainfallandtheantecedenteffectiverainfallofsampleswereanaly