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1、EDUCATIONANDEXAMINATIONCOMMITTEEOFTHESOCIETYOFACTUARIESRISKANDINSURANCEbyJudyFeldmanAnderson,FSAandRobertL.Brown,FSACopyright2005bytheSocietyofActuariesTheEducationandExaminationCommitteeprovidesstudynotestopersonspreparingfortheexaminationsoftheSocietyofActuaries
2、.Theyareintendedtoacquaintcandidateswithsomeofthetheoreticalandpracticalconsiderationsinvolvedinthevarioussubjects.Whilevaryingopinionsarepresentedwhereappropriate,limitsonthelengthofthematerialandotherconsiderationssometimespreventtheinclusionofallpossibleopinion
3、s.Thesestudynotesdonot,however,representanyofficialopinion,interpretationsorendorsementoftheSocietyofActuariesoritsEducationandExaminationCommittee.TheSocietyisgratefultotheauthorsfortheircontributionsinpreparingthestudynotes.P-21-05PrintedinU.S.A.SECONDPRINTING1R
4、ISKANDINSURANCEI.INTRODUCTIONPeopleseeksecurity.Asenseofsecuritymaybethenextbasicgoalafterfood,clothing,andshelter.Anindividualwitheconomicsecurityisfairlycertainthathecansatisfyhisneeds(food,shelter,medicalcare,andsoon)inthepresentandinthefuture.Economicrisk(whic
5、hwewillrefertosimplyasrisk)isthepossibilityoflosingeconomicsecurity.Mosteconomicriskderivesfromvariationfromtheexpectedoutcome.Onemeasureofrisk,usedinthisstudynote,isthestandarddeviationofthepossibleoutcomes.Asanexample,considerthecostofacaraccidentfortwodifferent
6、cars,aPorscheandaToyota.Intheeventofanaccidenttheexpectedvalueofrepairsforbothcarsis2500.However,thestandarddeviationforthePorscheis1000andthestandarddeviationfortheToyotais400.Ifthecostofrepairsisnormallydistributed,thentheprobabilitythattherepairswillcostmoretha
7、n3000is31%forthePorschebutonly11%fortheToyota.Modernsocietyprovidesmanyexamplesofrisk.Ahomeownerfacesalargepotentialforvariationassociatedwiththepossibilityofeconomiclosscausedbyahousefire.Adriverfacesapotentialeconomiclossifhiscarisdamaged.Alargerpossibleeconomic
8、riskexistswithrespecttopotentialdamagesadrivermighthavetopayifheinjuresathirdpartyinacaraccidentforwhichheisresponsible.Historically,economicriskwasmana
