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1、PathDependenceandTheValidationofAgent-basedSpatialModelsofLandUseDANIELG.BROWN,SCOTTPAGE,RICKRIOLO,MOIRAZELLNERandWILLIAMRANDInthispaper,weidentifytwodistinctnotionsofaccuracyofland-usemodelsandhighlightatensionbetweenthem.Amodelcanhavepredictiveaccuracy:itspredi
2、ctedland-usepatterncanbehighlycorrelatedwiththeactualland-usepattern.Amodelcanalsohaveprocessaccuracy:theprocessbywhichlocationsorland-usepatternsaredeterminedcanbeconsistentwithrealworldprocesses.Tobalancethesetwopotentiallyconflictingmotivations,weintroducethec
3、onceptoftheinvariantregion,i.e.,theareawhereland-usetypeisalmostcertain,andthuspathindependent;andthevariantregion,i.e.,theareawherelandusedependsonaparticularseriesofevents,andisthuspathdependent.Wedemonstrateourmethodsusinganagent-basedland-usemodelandusingmult
4、i-temporalland-usedatacollectedforWashtenawCounty,Michigan,USA.Theresultsindicatethat,usingthemethodswedescribe,researcherscanimprovetheirabilitytocommunicatehowwelltheirmodelperforms,thesituationsorinstancesinwhichitdoesnotperformwell,andthecasesinwhichitisrelat
5、ivelyunlikelytopredictwellbecauseofeitherpathdependenceorstochasticuncertainty.Keywords:Agent-basedmodeling;Land-usechange;Urbansprawl;Modelvalidation;Complexsystems1.IntroductionTheriseofmodelsthatrepresentthefunctioningofcomplexadaptivesystemshasledtoanincrease
6、dawarenessofthepossibilityforpathdependencyandmultipleequilibriaineconomicandecologicalsystemsingeneralandspatialland-usesystemsinparticular(AtkinsonandOelson1996,Wilson2000,Balmann2001).Pathdependencearisesfromnegativeandpositivefeedbacks.Negativefeedbacksinthef
7、ormofspatialdis-amenitiesruleoutsomepatternsofdevelopmentandpositivefeedbacksfromroadsandotherinfrastructureandfromservicecentersreinforceexistingpaths(Arthur1988,Arthur1989).Thus,asmallrandomcomponentinlocationdecisionscanleadtolargedeviationsinsettlementpattern
8、swhichcouldnotresultwerethosefeedbacksnotpresent(AtkinsonandOleson1996).Concurrentwiththisawarenessoftheunpredictabilityofsettlementpatternshasbeenanincreaseda
