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1、ModelingtheDynamicsofSupplyChainsJayashankarM.Swaminathan,StephenF.Smith,NormanM.SadehTheRoboticsInstituteCarnegieMellonUniversity5000ForbesAvenuePittsburgh,Pennsylvania15213-3891February7,1995AbstractItisestimatedthat,onaverage,60-70%ofthecostsofmanufacturedgoodscomefro
2、m[]rawmaterialsandpurchasedcomponentsHar92.Asindustrymovestowardanincreasinglymoreglobalmarketeconomyinwhichcompaniesfocusmoreontheproductionofcorehigh-value-addingcomponents,this gurecanonlyincrease.Thisinturnwillfurtherincreasetheinterdependencebetweenmanufacturersandth
3、eirsupplierswhenitcomestoimprovingduedateperformance,reducingcostsorincreasingqualityandwillputapremiumontheabilityofmanagerstograspthefullcomplexityofthesupplychainenvironmentinwhichtheircompaniesoperate.Currentsupplychainanalysistechniquesandtoolsoftenproveinadequateint
4、hisregard,duetomodelinglimitations(e.g. xedleadtimes,inabilitytoaccountfor nitecapacities,steadystateassumptions,omissionofimportantcosts),aninabilitytotakeadvantageofopportunitiesprovidedbyElectronicDataInterchange(EDI)technologyandalackofsupportforoperationalizingrecent
5、manufacturingphilosophies(e.g.LeanProduction",TQMandJIT).Thispaperreviewsimportantresearchissuesinsupplychainmanagementandpresentsinitialworktowardsthedevelopmentofdecisionsupporttoolsforanalysisofsupplychaindynamics.Ourapproachreliesonthedevelopmentofanextensiblemulti-a
6、gentsimulationtestbedinwhichawiderangeofsupplychainproblemscanbequicklyandaccuratelymodeled,andalternativesolutionstotheseproblemscanbecomparedviasimulation.Wesummarizeinitialresultsobtainedwithanearlyprototypethatindicatesomeperformancee ectsofdi erentinformationsharingp
7、rotocols.1ObjectivesandMotivationsToremaincompetitive,industrialorganizationsarecontinuallyfacedwithchallengestoreduceproductdevelopmenttime,improveproductquality,andreduceproductioncostsandleadtimes.Increasingly,thesechallengescannotbee ectivelymetbyisolatedchangetospeci
8、 corgani-zationalunits,butinsteaddependcriticallyontherelationshipsandinterdependenciesamongdi e
