麦肯锡中国医改分析

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1、China’shealth-caresectorcontinuestodevelopatanastonishingrate:spendingisprojectedtogrowfrom$357billionin2011to$1trillionin2020.Frompharmaceuticalstomedicalproductstoconsumerhealth,Chinaremainsamongtheworld’smostattractivemarkets,andbyfarthefastest-growingofallthelargeemergingone

2、s.Itisnotsurprisingthatmultinationalsareflockingtotakeadvantageoftheopportunities,butlong-termsuccessisbynomeansassured.AlthoughweremainoptimisticabouttheoveralloutlookforChina’shealth-caremarket,multinationalswillfindithardertocompete.Weexpectaclearerseparationbetweenwinnersand

3、laggards.Lateentrantsmaystruggle.ThreethemeswillshapeChina’shealth-caremarket:thecontinuationofeconomicanddemographictrends,furtherhealth-carereform,andthepoliciesarticulatedinthegovernment’s12thfive-yearplan.Someoftheseforces—suchasimprovementsininfrastructure,thebroadeningofin

4、surancecoverage,andsignificantsupportforinnovation—willhavepositiveimplicationsformultinationalcompanies.Others—forexample,pressureonpricingandtheriseoflocalchampions—willhavenegativeimplications.Incertainrespects(includingthebidtoreconcilelow-costuniversalhealth-carecoveragewit

5、hrewardsforinnovation)theforcescomeintodirectopposition.ToparaphraseVicePremierLiKeqiang,reformofthecountry’shealth-caresystemhasentered“unchartedwaters.”1TheforcesbehindtheboominChina’shealth-caremarketHealth-carecompanieshavecelebratedChina’srobustmarketinrecentyears;it’sabrig

6、htspotcomparedwiththelacklusterconditionstheycontendwithinmanyothercountries.Whatadifferencejustafewyearscanmake.Stronggrowthinthehealth-caresectorisfueledbyfavorabledemographictrends,continuingurbanization,anincreasingdiseaseburden,theoveralleconomy’shealthyexpansion,andincomeg

7、rowth(whichencouragesgreaterawarenessofandaccesstotreatments).Italsoreflectsthegovernment’sfocusonhealthcareasbothasocialpriority(asseenina2009health-carereform)andastrategicone(inthe12thfive-yearplan’simpactonthebiomedicalindustry).Health-careexpenditureshavemorethandoubled—fro

8、m$156billionin2006to$357billionin2011—inchingcl