节能减排与十一五规划目标的实现

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1、节能减排与“十一五”规划目标的实现C.S.Kiang(江家驷)Beijing,ChinaMarch28,2007PekingUniversityEnvironmentFundPekingUniversity,BeijingChinaPopulationGrowth1950-2006populationincrease>Last4millionyearspopulationincreaseEconomicGrowthGDPoftheyear2000>GDPoftheentire19thcentury人类纪时代Anthropocene——人类正在改变地球(PaulC

2、rutzen)U.S.BureauoftheCensusVitousek(1994)GLOBALCHANGESPopulationNitrogenFixationTemperatureBiodiversity………..1.全球范围的影响地球系统功能的变化2.不仅仅只是气候变化3.自然和人类的变化同时作用4.社会经济和生物物理的变化同时作用例如:Reid&Miller(1989)Chinahas22%oftheworld’spopulationwithlimitednaturalresourcesCultivatedland:1/3ofworldaveragele

3、velWater:1/4ofworldaveragelevelForestry:1/5ofworldaveragelevelOil:1/10ofworldaveragelevelNaturalGas:1/22ofworldaveragelevelResourcesofChinaConsumption8%Oil-oftheworld40%Cement-oftheworld31%Coal-oftheworld25%Aluminum-oftheworld31%CrudesteeloftheworldProductionGDP4%-oftheworldConsumpti

4、oninChinaIfChinahasthesamepaperconsumptionpercapitalasUS，weneedfourearth’sforest.Automobileconsumption:threeearth’sleadforthebatteryRapidUrbanizationGeneratesSevereEnvironmentalProblemsEconomicCostofAirandWaterPollutionGDP5-7%(3–5%)QualityofLife&EnvironmentalHealthof460millions(500mi

5、llions)populationinUrbanEnvironmentEnvironmentalProblemsInterconnectThroughInterfaceMatterExchangebottommudNutrientSaltCarbonSourceOrganicMatterHeavyMetalorganicpollutantTerrestrialEcosystemAtmosphere–BiosphereExchangeSO2,NOx,NH3,VOCNH4+,NO3-,SO42-Oxidant(PAN,O3)，particulatePAH，PCB，o

6、rganicpesticideWaterHydrophyticEcosystemHealthEffectsofAirPollutioninChina(UNDP2002)Eachyear:1.5millioncasesofbronchitis,and23,000and13,000deathsfromrespiratoryandheartdiseases.In2000:600,000prematuredeaths,5.5millioncasesofchronicbronchitis,and20millioncasesofrespiratoryillnessChild

7、ren’sblood-leadlevels:upto80percentabovecriticallevels7.4millionworkingdayslosttohealthproblemsrelatedtoairpollutionHealthEffectsofWaterPollutioninChina(UNDP2002)Only19percentofthetotalpopulationhasaccesstotapwaterinChina.Thedrinkingwaterof6ofChina’s27largestcitiesdoesnotmeetChina’sn

8、ationalstand