基于无失效数据船体可靠性的研究

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1、哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文基于无失效数据船体可靠性的研究姓名：郭金龙申请学位级别：博士专业：系统工程指导教师：沈继红20090101哈尔滨丁程人学博十学位论文关键词：船体寿命，无失效数据，综合E-Bayes估计，Weibull分布，可靠性，寿命预测基丁：无欠效数据船体可靠性的研究m__-．．．．iTIIiAbstractThereliabilityandthelifeofhullarecloselyrelated．Theresearchonthereliabilityofhullistoreflecttherealreliabil

2、itylevelofhull，andtopromotethereliabilitymanagementintheprocessofthehulls’development，manufacturingandusing．So，theresearchonthereliabilityofhullhasimportantsignificanceandpracticalapplicationvalue．Withtherapiddevelopmentofscienceandtechnology，somenewmaterialsarcwidely

3、usedinhull，whichmakesthereliabilityofthehullbecomehigher．Therefore，itdoesnotonlyneedverylongtesttimetoaccesstothezero-failuredataofhulllife，butalsomakesitdifficulttododestructsforhighcost．BecauseofthehigIlreliabilityofhullandlesssamples，thefixedtimecensoringmethodisus

4、edinthereliabilitytestofhullcommonlytogetzero-failuredataofhull．Asaresult，itispracticabletoresearchthereliabilityofhullusingzero-failuredata．AccordingtoZero·failuredataofhulllife，thereliabilityofhullisresearched．Twomethodsareusedtogetthepo硫estimationandintervalestimat

5、ionofthereliabilityofhull，andforecastlowerconfidenceboundlimitofhulls’reliablelife．TheconcreteworkCanbelisted嬲follows：First,withthezero-failuredataofhulllife，integratedE—Bayesestimationisusedtoresearchthereliabilityofhull．IntegratedE—Bayesestimationisaneffectivewayfor

6、thestudyofreliability，andtheidealmodelfordatamininganduncertaintiesknowledge，whoselargestadvantageismakingprioriknowledgecombined、Viminformationandsamples，anddependencerelationshipcombined、访tIlprobability．ThenumericalexperimentsshowthatintegratedE·Bayesestimationisfit

7、forthereliabilityresearchofhuU．Second，therelationshipofthelifeandreliabilityofhullisresearchedfordifferentstructurehulls．Fordifferentstructurehulls，whoselivesaresubjecttoWeibulldistribution，withzero．failuredataofhulllire，theunilateralmodelfor哈尔滨T程大学博十学何论文lowerconfiden

8、ceboundofhullreliabilityiSestablishedbasedongivenlife．Themodelaccumulatestheinformationofallzero—f撕lurelifedata,whichenhance