决策支持系统中预测算法研究

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1、武汉理工大学硕士学位论文决策支持系统中预测算法研究姓名：王妮娜申请学位级别：硕士专业：计算机应用指导教师：杨开英20060401武汉理工大学硕士学位论文AbstractThispaperplacesgreatemphasisonthestudyoftheforecastarithmetic，computinginteUigenceanditsapplicatfonin“DecisionSupportSystem(DSS)oneconomicandsocialdevelopmentofcities”．DSSisapeople-computersystem，

2、itbasedonmanage，operationalresearch，eybemeticsandbehaviorresearch；itsinstrumentsarecomputer,emulationandinformationtechnology；aimsathalf-stracturedquestion；bearsdecision-makingandhasaptitudefunction．Atpresent，manyfieldsarecomposingtheirDSShardly,andtheDSShasabigdevelopment．Howeve

3、r,ifwewantacorrectdecision，itspremiseiscorrectforecast．Sotheforecastmethod，methodimplementandtheprecisionofforecastarecoreofDSS．Theresearchfocusonmelioratingforecastarithmetic，improvingitsprecisionandrealizingtheforecastsystem．Inthispaper,throughanalyzingcomputerprogressofregress

4、ionandtimeserialsfirstly,putforwardmeansforadvancingprecisioninpracticalprocess，whichincludingchoosingpropersamples，functions，andparameters．Validatethesemethodsusingrealdata，verifyingprecisionandvalidityofthesemethods．secondly,throughcombiningtraditionalforecastarithmeticwithcomp

5、utingintelligence，introducesArtificialNeuralNetworkstosolvetheproblemofTimeSeriesPrediction．MakeafurtherresearchORTimeSeriesPredictionusingBP1neuralnetwork，includinggeneralstepsofbuildingamodel，processingsamplesandselectingbestparametersinreason．Thenbuildaforecastmodebasedonreald

6、ates，andfinalresultsprovethisneuralnetworkcanadvancetheprecisiononsomedegree．Atlast，programthesemethods，finallydesignandreaHzetheforecastsystem．Thesystemincludesfourparts：dealingdates，managingforecastmethods，buildingmodels，andforecastingresults．Implementthissysteminto“DSSoneconom

7、icandsocialdevelopmentofcities”，wecanforecastallindexesinit．Keywords：Forecast，regression，timeserials，artificialneuralnetwork，DSS(DecisionSupportingSystem)inY861487此鞲若属实，请申请人及导师签名。独创性声明本人声明，所呈交的论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得的研究成果。据我所知，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的地方外，论文中不包含其他人已经发表或撰写过的研究成果，也不包含为获得武汉理工大学

8、或其它教育机构的学位或证书而使用过的材料。与我一同工作的同志对本研究所做的任何贡