城市水安全综合评价理论与方法研究(I)

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1、蕊⑧天津又蓦博士学位论文一级学科：管理科学与工程学科专业：管理科学与工程作者姓名：张俊艳指导教师：韩文秀教授天津大学研究生院ABSTI沮CTWaterresour∞sofChinaisnotonlyscareandnon-balanceddisifibution,bmalSOpollutedveryseverely,andithasbecAMilethekeyobstaclesforthesustainabledevelopmentofChina．Thecomprehensiveevaluationforurbanwatersecurityisthefoundationfordesigni

2、ngthestrategyandplanofurbanWatersecurity,anditisalsoanewresearcharea,SOitisveryimportanttostudythecomprehensiveevaluationofurbanwater∞curitywhetherfortheoryorforpractice．11地conteutsandresultsofthisthesisaleinstasfoUows：Firstly,theconceptandthepropertiesofurbanH啊tersecuritya地defined．Andthedevelopin

3、gtendencyofwatersecuritystatusforhuman-watercomplexsystemisanalyzedbasedontheen灯opytheoryofdissipativestructure．Onthebaseofthat,theconceptofbearingcapacityofurbanwatersecurityiscreativelybroughtout,anditsinfluencefactorsandcalculatingmethodsaIediscussed．Fromtheaspectofpressureindexandsupportindex，

4、thecomprehensiveevaluationindexsystemforurbanwatersecurityissetup．Secondly,forthecomprehensiveevaluationofurbanwatersecurityhasthepropertiesofcomplex，fuzzyandmultilayer,andthetraditionalevaluationmethodswithfuzzysetsdonottakethemiddleinformationintoaccount,thecomprehensiveevaluationmodelisbroughto

5、uthasedonthevaguesets．Howtodeterminethevaguevalueofindexisdiscussed．andMultiexpert-AHPisusedtodeterminetheweightofindex．Asallexample，Beijing，Tianjin,ShanghaiandChongqing’Surbanwatersecurityareestimatedbythemethod,andtheeffectivenossofitisproved．Thirdly,forecastingmodelforurbanwaterdemandingbasedon

6、RBFisestablished，andinordertoimprovetheconvergingspeedandpreciseofRBFnetwork,simulatedannealing-geneticalgorithmisUSedtooptimizethenetwork．Atthe$anletime．acombination-forecastingmodelbasedonroughsetisbroughtouttoimprovethepreciseandreasonabilityofforecastingresults．Onthebaseoftlmt,fromtheaspectofa

7、bsoluteindexofwatersecurity,thewaterbalancebetweenthedemandandsupplyisanalyzed，andaccordingtodifferentwaterusingscenario，thesituationsofwaterdemandandsupplyofTianjinin2007and2010aIeanalyzed．Finally,forthetraditio