10. monetary policy rules in some mature emerging economies

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1、Monetarypolicyrulesinsomematureemergingeconomies1RenatoFilosaIntroductionThelastdecadehaswitnessedwidespreadchangesinthemonetaryandexchangerateregimesofmanyemergingeconomies.Thecentralbanksoftheseeconomieshavebecomemoreindependent,inflationtargetingregimeshavegaine

2、dmomentumandexchangerateregimesaremoreflexible.However,thereislimitedempiricalworkassessingtheeconomicconsequencesoftheseregimechanges,particularlyincomparisonwiththeextensiveliteraturethatfocusesonthesametopicsfortheindustrialcountries.Inanattempttopartiallyfillth

3、isgap,thispaperusessmallstructuralVARmodelstoexplorethreeconnectedissuesthatarerelevanttothepursuanceofastability-orientedmonetarypolicyintheemergingmarkets.First,isitpossibletohavemodel-basedmeasuresofcoreinflationcapableofreflectingpricelevelmovementsthataredueto

4、theactivityofmonetaryauthoritiesandforwhichtheseauthoritiesareaccountable?ThefirstsectionofthepaperexploresthistopicusingasmallSVARnotyetconsideredforthispurposebytheexistingliterature.Second,isitpossibletoestimatethereactionfunctionofthecentralbanksofmatureemergin

5、geconomiesandcomparetheresultswiththoseobtainedforindustrialeconomies?Section2ofthepaperprovidestheseestimatesandillustratesthemaindifficultiesinapplyingtoemergingeconomiesanalyticaltoolsthathavebeensuccessfullyusedforthemainindustrialeconomies.Inthethirdsectionoft

6、hepapersimulationsoftheeffectsofalternativemonetarypolicyrulesorthemainmacroeconomicvariablesofaselectednumberofeconomiesarepresented.Thesesimulationsarecomparedwiththoseobtainedfortheeuroareaundersimilarassumptions.Thelastsectionprovidesasummaryoftheresultsandsome

7、conclusions.1.ThequestforarobustmonetaryregimeformatureemergingeconomiesInthepastfewyearsmomentouschangeshaveoccurredinthemonetaryandexchangerateregimesofmostemergingcountries.InLatinAmerica,afterdecadesofextremeswingsininflationandintheexchangerate(duetooverlyacco

8、mmodatingmonetarypolicyandunsustainablefiscallaxity),massiveoutflowsofcapital(despitewidespreadcapitalcontrols)andrepeatedsystemicdisruptionsinth