rules in the conduct of swiss monetary policy norges bank ...

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1、RulesintheConductofSwissMonetaryPolicyNorgesBankWorkshopMay5and6,2003ThomasJ.JordanHeadofResearchSwissNationalBankContentsPartIElementsoftheSNB'smonetarypolicyframeworkPartIIThedecision-makingprocessPartIIITheSNBframeworkandpolicyrulesPartI:ElementsoftheSNB’smonetarypolicyf

2、rameworkTheSNBframework:overviewAfter25yearsofmonetarytargeting,theSNBadoptedanewmonetarypolicyframeworkattheendof1999.Althoughtheultimategoalofmaintainingpricestabilityhasremainedunchanged,itwasthemostimportantadaptationoftheSNB’sstrategysincethetransitiontoflexibleexchangerat

3、esin1973.Theframeworkconsistsofthreeelements:AnexplicitdefinitionofpricestabilityAninflationforecastasthemainindicatorforpolicydecisionsAtargetrangeforthe3M-Libor(LondonInterbankOfferedRate)asanoperationaltargetElementI:AnexplicitdefinitionofpricestabilityPricestabilityisdefin

4、edasanannualCPIinflationoflessthan2%.(samedefinitionastheECB).ThedefinitionofpricestabilitytakesintoaccountthemeasurementbiasintheCPIofapproximately1.0%andanuncertaintyrangeof±1%.Thedefinitionofpricestabilitydeliversthenominalanchorforthemedium-termorientationofmonetarypolicyan

5、disthebenchmarkfortheaccountabilityoftheSNB.ElementII:InflationforecastasthemainindicatorMonetarypolicydecisionsarebasedonaconsensusinflationforecastextractedfromtheinformationfromdifferentmodelsandindicators.Thereisnomechanicalreactiontotheforecast;theforecastisratherusedasth

6、emainindicator.Theinflationforecastservesasanimportantmeansofcommunicationforexplainingthepolicydecisionsandthecurrentstanceofmonetarypolicytothepublic.Theforecastispublishedquarterlyasapointforecastundertheassumptionofanunchanged3M-Libor.Theforecasthorizonis3yearsduetolonglags

7、inthemonetarytransmissionmechanism.ElementIII:Atargetrangeforthe3M-LiborTheSNBspecifiesitsmonetarypolicydecisionsbysettinganoperationaltargetrangeforthe3M-Liborwithawidthofnormally100basispoints.TheSNBusuallyannouncesthepositionwhereitwantstohavethe3M-Liborwithinthetargetrange

8、(middle,upper,orlowerpart).Alonger-terminterestrate(i.