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时间:2018-10-07
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1、RulesintheConductofSwissMonetaryPolicyNorgesBankWorkshopMay5and6,2003ThomasJ.JordanHeadofResearchSwissNationalBankContentsPartIElementsoftheSNB'smonetarypolicyframeworkPartIIThedecision-makingprocessPartIIITheSNBframeworkandpolicyrulesPartI:ElementsoftheSNB’smonetarypolicyf
2、rameworkTheSNBframework:overviewAfter25yearsofmonetarytargeting,theSNBadoptedanewmonetarypolicyframeworkattheendof1999.Althoughtheultimategoalofmaintainingpricestabilityhasremainedunchanged,itwasthemostimportantadaptationoftheSNB’sstrategysincethetransitiontoflexibleexchangerat
3、esin1973.Theframeworkconsistsofthreeelements:AnexplicitdefinitionofpricestabilityAninflationforecastasthemainindicatorforpolicydecisionsAtargetrangeforthe3M-Libor(LondonInterbankOfferedRate)asanoperationaltargetElementI:AnexplicitdefinitionofpricestabilityPricestabilityisdefin
4、edasanannualCPIinflationoflessthan2%.(samedefinitionastheECB).ThedefinitionofpricestabilitytakesintoaccountthemeasurementbiasintheCPIofapproximately1.0%andanuncertaintyrangeof±1%.Thedefinitionofpricestabilitydeliversthenominalanchorforthemedium-termorientationofmonetarypolicyan
5、disthebenchmarkfortheaccountabilityoftheSNB.ElementII:InflationforecastasthemainindicatorMonetarypolicydecisionsarebasedonaconsensusinflationforecastextractedfromtheinformationfromdifferentmodelsandindicators.Thereisnomechanicalreactiontotheforecast;theforecastisratherusedasth
6、emainindicator.Theinflationforecastservesasanimportantmeansofcommunicationforexplainingthepolicydecisionsandthecurrentstanceofmonetarypolicytothepublic.Theforecastispublishedquarterlyasapointforecastundertheassumptionofanunchanged3M-Libor.Theforecasthorizonis3yearsduetolonglags
7、inthemonetarytransmissionmechanism.ElementIII:Atargetrangeforthe3M-LiborTheSNBspecifiesitsmonetarypolicydecisionsbysettinganoperationaltargetrangeforthe3M-Liborwithawidthofnormally100basispoints.TheSNBusuallyannouncesthepositionwhereitwantstohavethe3M-Liborwithinthetargetrange
8、(middle,upper,orlowerpart).Alonger-terminterestrate(i.
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