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1、Chapter21Output,Inflation,and Monetary PolicyLearningObjectivesUnderstand...LO1OutputandinflationinthelongrunLO2AggregatedemandandaggregatesupplyLO3EquilibriumintheshortrunandthelongrunGovernmentspublisheconomicdataconstantly.Almosteverydaywereceivenewinformationonsomeaspectoftheeconomywithnewsst
2、oriesquotingexpertsonwhatitallmeans.Isinflationonthewayup?Istheeconomyonthevergeofrecession?Animportantpartofsuchanalysesisspeculationabouttheimpactofthenewdataonmonetarypolicy.Inourdiscussionofcentralbanking,wenotedthatconjectureaboutpolicymakers’likelyreactionfillsthefinancialnews.Andnowonder,f
3、ormembersofthecommitteesthatsetinterestrates—theFOMCintheUnitedStatesandtheGovern-ingCouncilintheeuroarea—alwaystietheirpolicyactionstocurrentandexpectedfutureeconomicconditions.Needlesstosay,everyoneispreoccupiedwithmonetarypolicy.Whiletradersinthefinancialmarketsaretryingtooutguesseachother,tom
4、akeaprofitbybettingonthenextmoveininterestrates,therestofusarejusthopingthecentralbankwillsucceedinkeepinginflationlowandrealgrowthhigh.Howdopolicymakersdoit?Whatisthemechanismthroughwhichchangesintheinterestrateinfluenceinflationandoutput?Andwhatarethelimitsofpolicymakers’powertocontroltheeconom
5、y?AswejustlearnedinChapter20,inthelongrun,inflationistiedtomoneygrowth.Overperiodsofseveraldecades,highmoneygrowthleadstohighinflation.Further-more,long-rungrowthdependsontechnology,thesizeofthecapitalstock,andthenumberofpeoplewhocanwork.Butovershorterperiodsofmonthsoryears,changesintherateofmone
6、ygrowthtelluslittleaboutfuturemovementsintheinflationrate.Thatisespeciallytruewheninflationislow,asithasbeenthroughoutmuchoftheindustrializedworldoverthepasttwodecades.Theobjectiveofthischapteristounderstandfluctuationsininflationandrealoutputandhowcentralbanksuseconventionalinterest-ratepolicyto
7、stabilizethem.Todoit,wewilldevelopamacroeconomicmodeloffluctuationsinthebusinesscycleinwhichmonetarypolicyplaysacentralrole.Fromthis,wewillseethatshort-runmovementsininflationandoutputcanarisefromtwosources:shiftsinthe
