Understanding inflation and the implications for monetary policy

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1、UnderstandingInflationandtheImplicationsforMonetaryPolicyUnderstandingInflationandtheImplicationsforMonetaryPolicy:APhillipsCurveRetrospectiveeditedbyJeffFuhrer,YolandaK.Kodrzycki,JaneSneddonLittle,andGiovanniP.OliveiforewordbyPaulA.SamuelsonTheMITPressCambridge,MALondon,England©2009

2、MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanyelectronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.ThisbookwassetinSabonbySztrecskaPublishingandwas

3、printedandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataUnderstandinginflationandtheimplicationsformonetarypolicy:aPhillipscurveretrospective/editedbyJeffFuhrer...[etal.];forewordbyPaulA.Samuelson.p.cm.PaperspresentedatameetingheldinJune2008andsponsor

4、edbytheFederalReserveBankofBoston.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindexes.ISBN978-0-262-01363-5(hardcover:alk.paper)1.Inflation(Finance)—Congresses.2.Phillipscurve—Congresses.3.Monetarypolicy—Congresses.4.Unemployment—Effectofinflationon—Mathematicalmodels—Congresses.I.Fuhrer,Jef

5、freyC.HG229.U432009332.4'1—dc222009010490ContentsAcknowledgmentsixForewordxiPaulA.Samuelson1ThePhillipsCurveinHistoricalContext1JeffFuhrer,YolandaK.Kodrzycki,JaneSneddonLittle,andGiovanniP.Olivei2FiftyYearsofthePhillipsCurve:69ADialogonWhatWeHaveLearnedRobertM.SolowandJohnB.TaylorN

6、.GregoryMankiw,Moderator3ForecastingInflation99PhillipsCurveInflationForecasts101JamesH.StockandMarkW.WatsonComments187AdrianRodneyPaganComments195LucreziaReichlin4TheLaborMarketandthePhillipsCurve205ANewMethodforEstimatingTimeVariationintheNAIRU207WilliamT.DickensComments231OlivierB

7、lanchardComments237ChristopherA.PissaridesviContents5InflationExpectations245InflationExpectations,Uncertainty,thePhillipsCurve,and247MonetaryPolicyChristopherA.SimsComments267MichaelT.KileyComments281AthanasiosOrphanides6EvidenceonPriceDetermination289ImplicationsofMicroeconomicPric

8、eDataforMacroeconomic291Mo