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1、OpenJournalofNatureScience自然科学,2017,5(3),274-285PublishedOnlineJuly2017inHans.http://www.hanspub.org/journal/ojnshttps://doi.org/10.12677/ojns.2017.53038PreliminaryDiscussionontheFailureForecastingRelatedtoaHigh-ImpactLightRaininShanghaiChunhongShiShan
2、ghaiMeteorologicalCenter,ShanghaiMeteorologicalService,ShanghaithththReceived:Jun.16,2017;accepted:Jul.7,2017;published:Jul.10,2017AbstractDuetothefailureforecastonalightrainof8-9April2010inShanghai,thehighesttemperatureforecastisfault,theerrornear7˚C.
3、Inthispaper,thepossiblereasonsoffailureforecastonthehigh-impactlightrainarediscussed.Theresultsshowthat:thelower(850hPa)mesoscalefron-togenesisslowsdownthemovingspeedoflow-levelshortwavetrough,causingtheshortwavetroughappearingaunusual“forward-lean”ver
4、ticalstructureduringthetroughmovement,lead-ingtothetroughlineofhigh-level(500hPa)passingthroughShanghaibutthelower-pressuresystemhaven'tandthelightrainprocesssustains.Obviously,theunexpectedphenomenonisdif-ficulttoforecastinoperation.Furthermore,thefor
5、ecastresultshavenotbeentimelyadjustedwhentheearlyforecastshavealreadyshownthesignificantdeviations,becauseoftheinertiafo-recastingthinking.Andthemesoscaleanalysisbasedonthenumericalmodelproductsisnotin-depthenough.Particularly,thelimitedcapabilitiesofn
6、umericalmodelforecastontheweakprocessanditsweatherelements,arethemainreasonsforultimateforecastfailure.Finally,someinspirationsontheforecastofspringlightraininShanghaiandmodelusingskillontheweakweatherprocessareshowninthispaper.KeywordsLightRain,WeakWe
7、atherProcess,High-ImpactWeather,FailureForecast一次高影响小雨过程预报失误的原因初探施春红上海中心气象台，上海收稿日期：2017年6月16日；录用日期：2017年7月7日；发布日期：2017年7月10日文章引用:施春红.一次高影响小雨过程预报失误的原因初探[J].自然科学,2017,5(3):274-285.https://doi.org/10.12677/ojns.2017.53038施春红摘要2010年冬春之交的4月，因对8~9日发生在上海地区的一次
8、小雨过程的预报失误，导致9日最高气温的预报与实况相差近7度，市民反响强烈。本文对这一“高影响”小雨过程的预报失误原因，进行了初步分析，结果表明：低层(850hPa)的中尺度锋生，减缓了低层短波槽系统的过境速度，使短波槽系统在过境时出现“前倾”的异常垂直结构，导致高空(500hPa)槽线虽已过境，但小雨过程却(因低层低值系统尚未过境)不止的令预报员始料未及的现象；预报员的惯性预报思维在前期预报已出现明显偏差的情况下未及时调整，对数值模式的中尺度预报信息分析不够深入，特别
