悬浮隧道风险分析

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1、大连理工大学硕士学位论文悬浮隧道风险分析姓名：林祥金申请学位级别：硕士专业：土木工程管理指导教师：李静20061220悬浮隧道风险分析RiskAnalysisofFloatingTunnel／、bstraet111efeasibilitystudyisoneofthemostimportantstagesintheengineeringprojcctearlierperioct,thel'easonsofitssuc∞ssorfailuremaybetheoversightoftheplanoi"thenotfullyconsideration．H

2、owever,themajorreasonistheappearanceoftheunfolfesC,Clarisks．Throughthecontrastoftheplanandtheanalysisofthekeyaspects．wecanfindthelatentrisicintheengineeringprojeel,andthedirectionforthenextstepofprojectimplementation．11lisarticlefirstintroducesthefloatingtunnel’sbasicconcept,t

3、h_rou曲comparingwiththeotherel

4、osssoB．channelsteelmologies．wecflndetermineitsmainsuperiority．ThenitcarriesOlltheeconomicanalysisandtheappraisalusingtheMonteCarlosimulationmetho击anddeterminethe∞opeprojectexpensemaybeaccepted．Next,inthesystemelaborationriskanalysisfoundation,andh

5、asreferredtotheriskanalysis’mainmethod,unifiesthefloatingtunneltheearlier1)eriodtoplantheehazaeteristicandthewholeeonstnietionprocess．wcestablishedtheriskmanagementappraisaltargetsystemofthefloatingtunnel。Andthencalculatestheeachmainriskfactor’sweightsbythe脚metho正findingtheans

6、weringincasureoftheriskmanagementthroughthesort．Finally,thisintroducestheartifieialnervenetwork’smaineharac)eristieandit’sdesignprocess．InthefoundationofthesimpleBPnetwork’sestablishmentandtheriskfactors’weights．thepapercarriesOilthenetwork在aJ．ningtothefloatingtunnelrisk白踟r．an

7、dmiagthenetworkwhichhastrainedfullytoforecastthefloatingtunneloverallriskvalue．111eardcleconductsa蛔researchtothefloatingtunnelfeasibilityandtheriskmanagqsrrlell,t，thegoalofitistodisco'v豇"theriskfactorsinthefloatingturmet,andsolvethequantitativeresearchquesti011intheprojectthro

8、ughseveralkindsofriskanalysistools．it锄providesthepolicy-makingbasisfortheadministrator．KeyWords：FloatingTulmd；Risk『；RiskAllalrsis—II—独创性说明作者郑重声明：本硕士学位论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得研究成果。尽我所知，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的地方外，论文中不包含其他人已经发表或撰写的研究成果，也不包含为获得大连理工大学或者其他单位的学位或证书所使用过的材料。与我一同工作的同志对本研究所做的贡献均已在论

9、文中做了明确的说明并表示了谢意。大连理工大学硕士研究生学位论文大连理工大学学位论文版权使用授权书本学位论文作者及指导教师完