跨河道桥工程防洪风险管理体系研究

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1、⑧÷目近代第一所大学天洋大謦TIANJINUNIVERSITY博士学位遨一级学科学科专业作者姓名指导教师筻堡整主里王猩王堡筻堡王宏伟金建星墼捶——天津大学研究生院2006年5月ABSTRACTAsthesocialprogressandeconomicdevelopment,thelossoffloodincreasingyearbyyear,kindsofbridgescollapsedfrequently,constructionOVerriverincreasinglybuilt,accordingtothepresentrulebasedonflood-conlrolin

2、fluenceassessment，anewconceptofERM(enterpriseofriskmanagement)isintroducedhereintoflood-controlriskmanagementofroadandbridgeconstructionoverrivegwhichsetsupanindicatorsystemofflood-controlriskevaluationformadandbridgeconstructionoverriver，establishesflood—controlriskmanagementresearchsystem，a

3、imtodevelopthetheoryresearchonriskmanagementandhydraulicconstructionfields．Onthebasisoftheknowledgeaboutconstructionreliabilitytheory，hydraulics，hydrology，mechanics，operationalresearch，probabilitystatistics，fuzzymathematics，managementscience，andSOon，theconceptofERMisintroducedhereinintoflood—

4、controlriskmanagementofroadandbridgeconstructionOVgTriver，whichtakeswideriskmanagementstudyonroadandbridgeconstructionOVerriver．Anindicatorsystemofflood—controlriskevaluationforroadandbridgeconstructionOVerriverissetupaccordingtothecorrelativerules．Based011theindicatorsystem，theflood—controlr

5、iskmanagementresearchsystemisestablishedthroughouttheoverallprocessforallrisks，whichanalyzesandcalculatestheriskprobability，effectsandthefinalriskvalueonflood-controlriskofroadandbridgeconstructionOVerriver．Applicationoffuzzyrandomreliabilitytheory,thereliabilityandriskprobabilityiscalculated

6、onflood．controlriskofroadandbridgeconstructionoverriverinthispapersystematically，SOastomakingtheriskresultmorecomprehensiveandvaluable．．FinallythepracticabilityandreliabilityareprovedbyanexampleandsuggestionsarealsoofferedtOthepresentproblems．Keywords：roadandbridgeconstructionoverriver，ERMOnf

7、lood—control，indicatorsystemofflood-controlriskevaluation，fuzzyrandomvariable，generalizedconstructionreliability独创性声明本人声明所呈交的学位论文是本人在导师指导下进行的研究工作和取得的研究成果，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢之处外，论文中不包含其他人己经发表或撰写过的研究成果，也不包含为获得叁鲞盘茔或其他教育机构的学位或证书而使用过的材料。与我一同工作的同志对本研究所做的